T&T: That Threat to Carnival 2018

The tsunami of spin dumped and being dumped on the populace of T&T via the media since the T&TPS press briefing before carnival 2018 that announced a threat to carnival is  instructive of the state social order is presently in. The official line was not to say  “terrorist threat” but as it was subsequently revealed the overwhelming majority of persons detained and subsequently released without charges were Muslim males according to the media reports. An attack to disrupt carnival involves possible action to harm civilians which under our terrorist act is an act of terrorism. But the 15 detained persons we know of according to media reports were not detained under the anti-terrorism act  nor charged under the anti-terrorism act! Two were charged for possession of  part of a firearm according to media reports. And according to media reports those released without charges had their digital devices seized by the police. On February 17, 2018 the three daily papers had headlines that screamed ISIS cell in T&T in some form or another and the stated source of this was the PM of T&T speaking in the House of Representatives on February 16, 2018. In the Sunday Newsday of 18 February 2018 an article reported that the AG stated that the PM never said that as reported in the media. Political spin by the elected politicians, political spin by the non-elected politicians of the national security apparatus and by the media. The most potent instance of an attempt at creating truth for specific unstated purposes maybe to sell papers I don’t know is the article in the Saturday 17 February 2018 Trinidad Guardian titled “ISIS claims responsibility for carnival threat” where the writer states that the February Dabiq article states that a group of its fighters were arrested on February 8 as they were preparing for a mega attack on carnival. When I read this Guardian article I literally piss myself laughing as the last Dabiq magazine issue from IS was in 2016. Dabiq magazine exists no more dead, nils, nada replaced by Rumiyah in 2016. The said article in Dabiq magazine a shot of which is contained in the Guardian article is in fact an English translation of an article in French that appeared on the Voltaire network out of Lebanon. Click the link below! The lesson of the whole affair is the repeat of the method utilised in 2011 in 2018 and both instances failed miserably. According to the press reports of testimonies of those detained it was simply a fishing expedition that held those in custody until after carnival done thereby alleviating the July 27, 1990 tabancca with grave harm to political careers and to career advancement in the national security apparatus. Better safe than sorry! This instance potently illustrates the reality that as the state of T&T and its politicians refuse to wrap their minds around the reality facing us. When you keep applying the same solution to problems and you expect different outcomes then you are ………..! My grave regret is that I am still here trapped in a madhouse where they all acting normal!

http://www.voltairenet.org/article199648.html

 

 

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BELIZE: Power Relations of Transnational Organised Crime, Ruling Politicians and Public Servants of the IND

The article titled : “The Power Relations of Transnational Organised Crime, Ruling Politicians and Public Servants of the IND, Belize” now available at my website via this link:  https://www.daurius.com/illicit-trades

 

Belize: Transnational Organised Crime, the State and Human Smuggling

An Analysis of the Special Audit of the Immigration and Nationality Department of Belize by the Auditor General of Belize

The Auditor General of Belize carried out an audit of the Immigrant and Nationality Department (IND) of the Government of Belize for the period 2011-2013 which was placed online. This analysis will focus on the nationality of persons listed in the audit report of having received valid Belizean visas, permanent residency status and Belizean passports illicitly as this illustrates the strategy of organised crime to obtain licit Belizean visas, and nationality documents as revealed in the audit report.

The audit report in Table 1 lists 28 individuals who were issued visas, then Belizean nationality and passports although they didn’t qualify for the Belizean nationality and passports. Persons from China accounted for 20 individuals listed on Table 1 out of 28 or 71.42%. Ukraine and Russia were next with 2 individuals each followed by Lebanon, India, Saudi Arabia and the USSR with 1 each. Persons from China overwhelmingly dominated this category. Three successful applicants without sponsors listed on their applications each had a letter dated January 29, 2013 written by Minister Erwin Contreras in their favour to the Director of the Immigrant and Nationality Department.

Table A.1 lists 15 individuals who received visas then permanent residency status thereafter in contravention of the Policy and Procedure Manual. These 15 individuals received permanent residency status which they didn’t qualify for. All of the 15 individuals were from China.

Table B lists seven successful applications for visas supported by government ministers. The seven visas were issued without the necessary supporting documents supplied. At the Belize North Border Station (BNBS) there were three successful applicants listed: two from Honduras supported by the intervention of Hugo Patt and one from Paraguay supported by Elvin Penner. At the Philip Goldson International Airport (PGIA) 4 applicants were successful two from India and two from Nepal all supported by Edmond Castro.

Table C lists the details of the nine visa stubs from the Belize West Border Station (BWBS) that were missing hence unavailable for the audit. The visas were issued to nine applicants with their countries of origin as follows: Colombia 2, Japan 2, Salvador 2, Singapore 1, South Korea 1 and Nicaragua 1. The audit report states that 8 visa foils were stolen and sold to officials of the Belize City Council. Even before recovery of the 8 visas officials of the Belize IND decided to issue these visas but without the visa stickers/foils in order to earn revenue and not lose it by discarding these visas. But the audit states that 134 visa stubs were not presented for audit nor on hand at the BNBS and PGIA stations. Which points to an operational reality common to the Belize IND during the period of the audit. It’s noteworthy that of the 134 missing stubs 1 was cancelled with 133 visas issued on these stubs 62 missing stubs or 46.26% were issued to Russians, 25 to Japanese with the remaining 46 to a wide range of nationalities as Honduras and El Salvador 7 each, Chinese 6, Colombia 5, South Korea 4, Montenegro and Serbia 2 each. It is apparent from this table the nature of the flow of persons into Belize and the fact that members of transnational organised crime groups can utilise this flow given the operational weaknesses of the Belize IND highlighted in the audit report.

Two visa applicants from China used the same passport size photograph for their visa applications which were approved on July 24, 2013 and two visas issued the same day without the Director’s approval and signature on the two application forms. The visa applications of both Chinese applicants were recommended by Minister John Saldivar.

Five Cuban nationals incarcerated at the Belize Central Prison were granted visas to stay in Belize upon their release from prison in spite of the fact that all five presented copies not the original of their Cuban passports. Four of the five Cubans presented references with their visa applications but these references were not attached to their approved visa applications.

833 applicants used their US Visas or US Permanent Residence Cards to obtain Belize visas from the BMPS, BNBS, BWBS and PGIA in keeping with stated regulations of the Belize IND. The audit report states that 18 persons with expired US visas were granted Belize visas. Of the 18 persons approved for Belize visas 8 were Chinese. The audit report states that there was no evidence that the veracity of the US visas and the US permanent residence cards were verified before the Belize visas were issued. The report states that 7 persons were granted Belize visas on the basis of expired US permanent residence cards. Much more important the audit report states that there is no evidence that persons granted Belize visas on the basis of having a US visa whose country of origin triggered the need to have a DINS and security clearance check done of the applicant were the DINS check and the security clearance done. A Russian female applicant is granted a Belize visa on the basis of being in possession of a US visa but on the application form no proof of this is attached to the said form.

Visa application forms were processed, approved and Belize visas issued even though the applicant didn’t sign the visa application form at the BMPS, BNBS, BWPS and PGIA. Applications for visas were approved and issued even though these applications carried no passport size photograph of the applicant. Visas were issued on applications where a photocopy of the photograph of the applicant was attached. Visas were issued at BMPS, BNBS, BWBS and PGIP where the application forms didn’t have a photocopy of the bio page of the applicants’ native passport attached.

The salient issue that arises so far in the order of presentation of the audit report is the security and veracity of the immigration and naturalisation process of Belize. The possibility exists and is real as a result that you have persons holding Belizean visas, permanent residence status, Belizean nationality and a passport who are not whom and what they say they are! What has been described so far is an apparatus manipulated by agents of the Belizean state that facilitates human smuggling through Belize as a transnational organised crime illicit enterprise. This is an apparatus of power on which the power relations between agents of the state of Belize, the politicians of Belize and transnational organised crime are exercised thereby giving life to the mechanisms of power between the players. This power relation in turn supports a hierarchical edifice of organised crime where the bottom feeders are always on the alert to feed off the stragglers of the edifice. Commanding the apex of this hierarchical order are the Mexican Transnational Trafficking Organisations (MTTOs) with their partners as the snakeheads of China and their affiliates the gangland coyotes of the trade in humans in Central and South America.

What is apparent is that the apparatus accommodates requests by clients who are seeking bona fide legal Belizean immigration and naturalisation documentation. But there is a diversity of demand ranging from the request for visas alone to enter Belize for express purposes, there is the demand for visas that rapidly evolve to the receipt of permanent residence status and there is the demand for rapid naturalisation and the issuing of a Belizean passport. The demand for these documents regardless of the eligibility of the applicant is what drives the demand side of the apparatus. A demand side that is then an illicit enterprise seeking the services of agents of the state to provide a licit service. The demand side of the apparatus given the level of services sought from agents of the state insists on the utilisation of organised crime especially transnational organised crime to create and maintain this illicit enterprise sustainably. The demand side is defined by a price range for services which is influenced by the service offered and its severity in terms of breaches to the relevant body of law and the nature of demand for the range of possible services.  The premier package will then involve the granting of a visa then permanent residence culminating in the granting of Belizean nationality and a passport in rapid succession in contravention of law. The demand for specific packages then depends on having the resources to afford any said package and the strategic need for a said package. But in the spaces created by the apparatus other players not affiliated to hegemonic transnational organised crime will constantly seek to play in the field of this licit/illicit enterprise with specific power relations between the hegemonic player and these small players. These power relations inject violence as a given within these spaces.

The agents of the state operating within the spaces of the apparatus are called upon to respond to two opposed realms of power relations: the realm rooted in law and organisational power relations and the illicit realm rooted in an illicit enterprise where violence is a given and the basis of discipline. These involved agents of the state operate in at minimum two diametrically opposed worldviews which render them bi-polar at the level of worldviews, perception and action. The common mechanism to cope with this reality is to use the pursuit of self- interest as the cement of the matrix. The reality is that the apparatus is not sustainable as with the passage of time the agents of the state pursue paths of action which threaten the very sustainability of the apparatus whilst the clients demand volumes of licit documents that threaten the very survival of the apparatus as greed pervades both sides of the equation coupled with fear of retribution and the collapse of the feeding trough.

In its pursuit of its personal agenda in a bi-polar perceptual terrain agents of the state present the gravest threat to the state. As they cannot exclude persons who present threats to the state when they are clients of the illicit business partners of the agents of the state. The agents of the state active in the illicit enterprise must fail to exercise the power granted to them by the state to safeguard the security of the state in the interest of the illicit enterprise when a client of the illicit business is involved. The rule is those who present threats who are not clients of the illicit business it’s open season on them which allows the agents of the state to indicate to the social order that they are in fact doing their job. The state then becomes reliant on the vetting of clients by the transnational organised crime group as clients bent on attacking the state are bad for business. But what about the smaller, bottom feeder groups who have no such qualms? It’s business as usual! The lesson is then grave as there is no permissible tolerance level for such illicit enterprises as inevitably the safety of the state is challenged. But what if the politicians of the state are also involved in the illicit enterprise? Then the change agent is compromised and the state and social order become trapped in a terrain where the spaces under the control of the state become steadily eroded. The state is progressively weakened, it loses its monopoly on violence and its hegemony is openly challenged. In this condition its ruling elites are noted for impotence in the face of the threats to the state.

The audit report continued with presenting its findings which exposed the extent the agents of the state were operationally willing to go to facilitate the illicit enterprise of human smuggling. The findings that dealt with breaches of the regulations governing sponsors of applicants for visas exposed the depth of the facilitation process illustrating the nature of the illicit enterprise.

Visas were issued at BMPS, BNBS, BWBS and PGIA to applicants even though there were no required letters of financial support from sponsors attached. This letter is a declaration of the sponsor as to the relationship between the sponsor and applicant, the ability of the sponsor to financially support the applicant during her/his stay in Belize, the income of the sponsor and the legal status of the sponsor in Belize: a citizen of Belize. The audit report states that 3,791 applications presented to the audit team at BMPS, BWBS, BNBS, and PGIA had no letter of financial support attached. In Table K of the audit report the names of four sponsors who submitted incomplete letters of financial support for applicants. Three of the applicants are from China and one from India. The three sponsors of the applicants from China have Chinese names and the sponsor for the applicant from India has a South Asian name.

Applicants were issued visas at BMPS, BNBS, BWBS and PGIA with proof of the source of funds by their sponsors missing from their application. Bank statements, bank books, cash and credit cards and employment letters from the sponsors were all absent from these successful visa applications. Business certificates, and trade licenses were used and accepted by the immigration officers at BMPS, BNBS, BWBS and PGIA as proof of the financial ability of sponsors. The audit report states that no proof was found that these documents were in fact confirmed as being valid and the audit discovered that visas were issued on the basis of fake documents. A total of 40 applicants with their sponsors were listed in the report as having failed to submit proof of source of funds. There were sponsors listed who were sponsors of multiple applicants. Of the 40 applicants, 34 were from China and their sponsors all had Chinese names. The remaining 6 comprised 2 applicants from Syria, 1 from Honduras, 1 from Nicaragua, 1 from Brazil and 1 from South Korea. In addition, fake documents and bogus businesses were used by specific sponsors to sponsor multiple successful applicants for visas. This is a potent indicator of organised crime and its power relation with the Belize IND. The list of those sponsors who used a bogus business to sponsor applicants comprised 2 sponsors with Chinese names who sponsored multiple applicants with Chinese names as follows: One sponsored 8 applicants and the other 6. The third and final sponsor listed sponsored 4 applicants with Arabic names with the name of the sponsor also being Arabic. There were three sponsors listed who used fake/bogus certificates to sponsor applicants two of the three had Chinese names and the third had a South Asian name. One sponsor with a Chinese name sponsored 12 applicants with Chinese names whilst the other sponsor with a Chinese name sponsored 7 applicants. The third sponsor who had a South Asian name sponsored 4 applicants with South Asian names. The report lists those sponsors who presented business certificates as a certificate of registration and a trade license that didn’t exist in the Belize Company Registry. There were four sponsors listed with three having Chinese names and one with a South Asian name. Those sponsors with Chinese names sponsored only applicants with Chinese names and the sponsor with the South Asian name sponsored applicants only with South Asian names. The three sponsors with Chinese names sponsored a total of 17 applicants with Chinese names and the sponsor with the South Asian name sponsored 2 applicants. Transnational organised crime involved in human smuggling into Belize has now tapped into the market for forged official documents thereby expanding the market for and by extension the level of illicit activity on the market for fake/counterfeit official Belizean documents necessary for the illicit trade in humans.

The report highlighted the failure of the BMPS to retain in its records copies of documents of all applicants for fixed periods of stay in Belize. This was also the case at BNBS, BWBS and PGIA. This void created in the records therefore facilitates the illicit enterprise and is necessary to the attempt to maintain some semblance of lawful operational standard to ensure the illicit enterprise is sustainable. But the daily operation of the illicit enterprise within a licit state agency breeds impunity and breaches of operational methodology multiply even though they are not strategically necessary to the sustainability of the illicit enterprise. This is highlighted in the audit report by the reports of officers not signing and dating applications, not certifying that copies of documents are in fact true copies and not utilising official questionnaires or attaching them to applications. Impunity breeds threats to the state as it does to illicit enterprises provided that those with the powers of state oversight must be willing to intervene to retrieve the situation. The reality described in the audit report is a Belize IND in a feeding frenzy as agents of the state are in pursuit of maximising their take from the illicit enterprise by monetising all requests made for their services. There is then no strategic selectivity which means that tension soon arises between agents of the state and transnational organised crime where transnational organised crime will utilise specific methods to ensure compliance by rogue agents of the state. The apex of the range of solutions isn’t necessarily murder as there exists a range of potent threats that flow from the public exposure of the involvement of the agent of the state in the illicit enterprise and the fallout thereof. Usually the certainty of a graphic death at the hands of El Sicario is quite effective.

At the time of the audit nationals of the following countries required a DINS and Security clearance be done having applied for a visa: Afghanistan, Algeria Bangladesh, Bolivia, Colombia, Eritrea, Iran, Iraq, Kenya, Korea (North), Libya, Pakistan, Palestine, Somalia and Sudan. Visas were approved for nationals of these countries without the necessary DINS and Security clearance being done. The audit team was informed that persons of the listed countries in possession of a valid US visa were automatically granted a Belize visa. The veracity of the US visa was not confirmed through US channels. This reality then presents the gravest threat to Belize as an illicit enterprise joined at the hip with a licit state agency has compromised the security apparatus that the Belize IND is charged with policing.

To maintain the integrity of the process of the Belize IND the stock of blank and used visas must be secured and there must be oversight of the system. The audit report stated that at the BMPS, BNBS and BWBS the stock of blank and used visas were not stored in safes but in cabinets. No evidence was forthcoming to the audit team that the Officers in Charge/Port Commanders regularly audited the visa foils, the visa registers and the cash books. No evidence was forthcoming that personnel of the Ministry of Labour, Immigration and Nationality regularly audited the stock of visas held at the stations. No evidence was forthcoming that the Director of Immigration and Nationality on an ongoing basis monitored her/his staff at the BMPS, BNBS, BWBS and PGIA. According to the audit report oversight where it exists is weak and ineffective where it does not it’s business as usual. Which resulted in the position of the report that internal controls were very weak at BMPS, BNBS, BWBS and PGIA. On the issuance and control of blank passports and Meryl Sheets the audit report states: “We noted that internal control was very weak when it came to the control and issuance of Blank Passports and the management of Meryl Sheets. It is evident that the Department lacks management in planning, control and organization of vital documents.” The Department is then in an operational condition that renders it incapable of repulsing the threat posed by transnational organised crime in Belize. The operational condition of the IND enables organised criminal activity falsifying the discourse of corruption in the state sector.

The licit state agency by its operational process is enabling a sustainable illicit enterprise situated in the bowels of the licit state agency premised on a working alliance with transnational organised crime.

The data listed in the appendices of the audit report provide insights into the terrain of transnational organised crime that agents of the state in the illicit enterprise of the sale of state immigration and naturalisation documents navigate on a daily basis. It’s readily apparent that agents and operations of Chinese transnational organised crime is the most widely listed reality of the appendices. The next is the major operational presence of Russian transnational organised crime. With the operations of the MTTOs being the masked hegemon of the illicit order. As all transnational organised crime groups operating within the bounds of this illicit enterprise are impacted by and have to recognise the hegemony of the MTTOs over the illicit trades of Belize. The MTTOs dominate the flow of persons into Belize from Latin America who are using Belize as a jump off point to Mexico whether they exit Belize in a short or longer time frame. Then there are those who enter Belize to work in the structure of the illicit trades of Belize including those in command and control positions. Then there are those who enter Belize seeking to establish hustles which require they engage with the state as legal entry is vitally necessary to open doors to ensure operational security. The snake heads of China sell their service packages for licit entry to Belize demanding payment in advance. Those who can only afford the budget/economy packages are the most liable to become targets of extortion where they become bonded to the snake heads to dispose of as they see fit. Those from China who are utilising family ties to a resident of Belize are still faced with the task of running the gauntlet of the snake heads and the Mexican Transnational Trafficking Organisations (MTTOs) ultimately to access the services of the illicit enterprise. Those seeking to bypass these gate keepers will then seek out agents of the state and politicians willing to offer their services. To do so places one in peril as the long reach of the arm of ethnic and race based transnational organised crime is soon felt. Those appendices which show persons resorting to fake legal documents for sponsors of applicants not only illustrate the activities of organised crime but more so of those seeking to run hustles in the illicit immigration business that must by pass and run parallel to the operational methodology of transnational crime. The reality is when a client purchased a premier package upon arrival in Belize there is a seamless transition to the granting of a visa which will not be picked up by the audit team. Those who paid for budget packages or choose to hire out independent service providers within the agency for a cut rate fee are predominantly those who made the appendices of the audit report. The cost of the service package purchased directly determines the quality of the product delivered. The difference between being named in an audit report and being a ghost in the apparatus of the agency. Are these successful applicants who they say they are on the applications lodged at the Belize IND? For the right price paid in US dollars no you are not!

The Chinese and the Latin Americans have always viewed Belize as a staging area in their strategy for illicit migrants to enter the US. What is now apparent from the audit report is the growing range of nationalities now traveling to Belize for the same reason. Persons from South Asia, Africa and the Middle East are now in the mix and this is the result of the hegemony the MTTOs now exercise over human smuggling in the Caribbean basin. The depth and expanse of the operational activity of the Chinese snake heads in Belize indicate an operational presence that has evolved from the foundation the Triads laid during British colonial domination in Belize to the snake heads of the Peoples’ Republic of China today with smuggling links to the US and Canada laid under the Triads maintained to the present. But the snake heads have evolved the smuggling strategy to now include permanent settlement of Chinese in Belize where they work in snake head owned enterprises both licit and illicit and are moved around the Caribbean basin to work in snake head owned and controlled licit and illicit enterprises. The snake heads finance the front businesses which then receive and absorb the Chinese transported by the snake heads to the Caribbean. This movement then masks the parallel illicit enterprises which now have a dual flow structure with people and goods from China as synthetic drug precursors and fake goods. With illicit drugs, precious stones, gold, diamonds and animal organs as fish bladders etc. to China. The skinheads are now suppliers of Chinese sex workers to the Caribbean basin.

The salient questions that arises from the revelation of the audit report of the activities of the Russians in Belize are as follows: Is it a gateway as is the case with the Chinese, Latin Americans and others? Is Belize an operational base for money laundering and the acquisition of a nationality other than Russian? Is Belize one operational area amongst others in the Caribbean basin where Russian organised crime blends operationally with the MTTOs, their partners and affiliates? What is the nature of the organisational structure of Russian organised crime in Belize?

Analysis of the audit report raises the issue of the nature and functioning of the state in neo colonial social orders in the Caribbean basin premised on the Westminster model of government. With constitutional decolonisation/independence these former British colonies inherited the expanse of contested spaces in the social order created by the British colonial state. Over time since independence the expanse and depth of these contested spaces have evolved, expanded and heightened because of the failure of the ruling elites to grasp the necessity of specific types of power relations in these states founded on the established constitutional model. Emphasis has been placed on sovereignty and law to the detriment of the necessary and compulsory task of discipline and domination premised on mechanisms of the nexus: power/knowledge. Failing to grasp the reality that power must be exercised or it’s exercised upon you it’s not a thing to be held, owned nor is it an entitlement.  The ruling elite is mesmerised by the discourse of sovereignty which renders them monarchs with the prime minister being the prime monarch in their own minds. Mechanisms of power/knowledge must be unleashed towards the generation of discourse which drives the application of power in relations where discipline/domination is the strategic aim. The fixation with sovereignty generates the belief that a special group holds power by law and must not be challenged which obviates the need for exercising power/power relations throughout the social order as their power is a given even an absolute. This position has then driven the expanse and depth of contested spaces in the social order as it gives space to rebellious power/knowledge and their attendant discourses to challenge those who are under the delusion that power is an object they hold. Those addicted to sovereignty concentrate on general elections as the only relevant power struggle they are concerned with and with victory comes the spoils of dominating the state. This further enhances their refusal to grasp the need for engaging in the production of apparatuses and mechanisms of power with its attendant knowledge and discourse of truth towards disciplining and dominating the social order. But this failure has now resulted in general agencies of power as state institutions incapable of responding to threats to the state. For the general forms of power must be constantly renewed by the mechanisms created in response to power relations on the ground in the quest for discipline and domination. In these states the general agencies of power have fallen into stasis precipitating a crisis of sustainable survival of the state and its social order.

The ruling elites especially the politicians have responded to this crisis by insisting that the problem is state corruption. But they will never see much less publicly admit that the problem is the manner in which the ruling elite defines power and its operation within the context of the Westminster model of government. The prime driving force of the social order presumed under the Westminster model is the domination of the social order by power/knowledge and its power relations masked by the discourse of sovereignty and law. Where law and sovereignty serve and enables power/knowledge in its quest for discipline/domination. The ruling elites don’t get the message as they are still trapped in a colonial worldview failing to understand that there was no Westminster model applied under the colonial order. This was the order of massa, smiles and blood and you simply cannot hope to replicate this colonial order today.

The independence experiment in the British Caribbean colonies was then premised on an attempt to graft unto a colonial order a mechanism of power that was not organic to that of the colonial order. In fact, the two mechanisms of power are diametrically opposed and the colonial order rejected the graft. The independence experiment is then in tatters as the ruling elite has created a state and its social order that is a Frankenstein monster, neither colonial nor Westminster. The state is not then corrupt it’s malformed, undernourished, brain dead and non-sustainable exemplified by the chronic violence and the inability to change regardless of who rules in conjunction with the so-called inherent superiority of the oligarchs. Primarily the result of the addiction of the ruling elites to the discourse of sovereignty is seen where they insist that the primary issue is attacks on the state not the moribund operational nature of the general mechanisms of power of the state. For no one should avail themselves of the opportunity to assault the state and those who do can only do so via state corruption. A discourse that denies the history of the evolution of the power/knowledge state form from reason of state to biopolitics from whence the Westminster model came.

The discourse of corruption is then another product of the delusion of the ruling elite which addresses nothing and solves nothing for the problem is the ruling elite in the context of the organic demand of the Westminster model. Lumpen elite, lumpen state, violent social order.

 

Reference

“Special Audit-Visa Immigration and Nationality Department for the period 2011-2013” Office of the Auditor General of Belize

www.audit.gov.bz/downloads/Visa.pdf

 

Escalating Murder Rate in T&T: The New Normal

Murder in Trinidad & Tobago 2017: The Response of the Politicians to The New Normal

This is an update of my paper titled: “An Analysis of the Murder Rate of Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) 1990-2016”

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/d0264a_decf639167d2494f9bf333e37c794472.pdf

https://drugtrade.wordpress.com/2017/01/10/murder-in-tt-1990-2016-an-analysis/

The number of murders for 2017 is tentatively put at 494 for 2017. This is the third highest number of murders per year for the period 1990 to 2017. Number 1 is 2008 with 547, 2009 with 506 is second and 2017 with 494 is in third place with 2010 in fourth place with 473. What is noteworthy in 2017 is that it’s a pinnacle attained in an escalation of murder from 2013 to 2017 a five-year period. In fact, from 2008 to 2017 there was a shallow unsustainable dip in murders per year for the period in the years 2010 and 2011. From 2012 the upwards spiral commenced with the rate of the spiral quickening even further in 2016 to 2017.

What is clearly apparent for the period 2008 to 2017 is the failure of the politicians and the security agencies of T&T to impact the reality on the ground towards deescalating the spiral of especially gun violence on the ground. It’s now manifestly apparent that the political power relations of the state, the power relations embracing the state security agencies and the politicians of the state and the internal power relations of the security agencies of the state ensure the inability of these agencies to engage with the reality on the ground towards impacting the murder spiral.

Great emphasis is being placed on the T&T police service but the terrain of possible change to this institution is defined and limited by its power relations with the politicians and its internal power relations. What is then possible on this terrain will not impact the reality on the ground to the extent to achieve what is sought and expected by the populace, an expectation in its diversity which is also constituted by the politics of race to control the state.

The fact that key and strategic institutions of the state that impact the terrain of crime and violence continue in 2018 to define themselves by apparatuses and mechanisms of power invented to serve the colonial order results in operational worldviews which enable and empower crime remains a non-issue and of no concern is a lesson in itself. That the police are there for social control and customs to collect revenue ensure that in the era of transnational organised crime in the Caribbean T&T is a gangsta’s paradise! Both operational worldviews are part of the colonial institutional legacy that we desperately hold on to trying to breathe life into a rotting cadaver hence the bloodletting in T&T. These operational colonial legacies ensure that the police don’t proactively seek out and dismantle organised and transnational organised crime operations. They search, seize and arrest sum total most times parts thereof. They are permanently in reactive mode in accordance with the colonial model of social control policing where the colonial ruling class which has a race basis is exempt from policing. The police in this colonial mode simply cannot engage with organised crime over long periods vitally necessary to dismantle organised crime groups. Gangsta’s get a free ride. How many of the gangs we are told we have in T&T have been dismantled? How many trafficking organisations have been dismantled? The issue is much more fundamental than police corruption. The internal power relations of the police are constituted by the colonial apparatuses and mechanisms of power. These power relations accede to the demand of the politicians for a politicised police service focused on social control whilst the politicians accept the colonial mechanisms of power of the police service. Politicians and the police service are then trapped in a catch 22 as the paramountcy of social control through policing for politicians obliges them to accept the police service for what it is and be risk averse to fundamental and far reaching police reform. Whilst the power relations of the police service demand stability and business as usual as being vital to career path preservation which demands the preservation of the colonial mechanisms of power and power relations. In addition, career path preservation is rooted in the maintenance of social control by policing which demands the application of the colonial mechanisms of power. When those enmeshed in the power relations, the politicians and the executive of the police service, are faced with the politics of escalating crime waves the catch 22 hardens as the path to grappling with the reality becomes even more precarious because of the political cost feared by all is intensified by the very nature of the politics of race and capturing the state in T&T. The salient question then is the ability of the politicians and the police executive enmeshed in these hegemonic power relations to gaze upon and understand the intrinsic nature of the threats posed and then to critically assess and act upon their deficiencies? Threat mitigation demands constant organic change but the actions so far taken regardless of political regime and police executive is an attempt to rescue the status quo thereby preserving business as usual. This results in threat denial not mitigation!

There is then an objective and the strategy has been applied to attain the objective. The reality is, the objective is not the safety of the masses in the streets the objective is career preservation. The politicians have invested heavily in the police service of T&T to ensure the objective is attained and in so doing have become transfixed by their gaze upon the police service. For it’s a gaze borne out of dependency which constituted the belief that the police service is the premier state security agency necessary to attaining the objective of career preservation. This conviction has redounded to the benefit of successive police executives since 1962 in their quest for career preservation but the price paid is the inability of both the politicians and the police executive to be agents of change vitally strategically necessary to ensure the police service constantly evolves to grapple with the threats posed by a rapidly evolving and globalised terrain of crime. And to the detriment of the state agencies of Customs & Excise and Immigration. Will the politicians appoint a commissioner and a deputy commissioner of police who are not trusted participants of the power relations that obtain between politicians and the police executive?

Customs encased within the colonial cocoon can never adequately engage with the strategically necessary task of border security which demands long term engagement with organised crime to dismantle crime groups. And any attempt to graft this task onto the colonial apparatus will result in failure as it creates a terrain that enables organised crime. The colonial mechanism of power determines that the primary importance of Customs & Excise is revenue collection. Since 1962 the focus has remained the same as the politicians have a marked preference for all tasks of policing to have the police service in the lead role including in areas where they have no power under law as is the case with Customs & Excise bonded areas and immigration. The use of the special powers of Customs & Excise for the express purpose of border security is then sacrificed to the perpetuation of the power relations which enmesh the police service and the politicians to the detriment of border security. It’s then practically unfathomable for politicians and the police executive to have a militarised arm of Customs & Excise whose primary task is to deal with illicit imports such as guns and ammunition in the spaces specifically and solely under the control of Customs & Excise. As this development presents a challenge to the power relations that have locked the politicians and the police executive in an embrace of power. Immigration remains tightly wrapped in the colonial cocoon and in a present state of operational capacity and capability that renders it irrelevant to the terrain of crime in T&T. The same has then to be done for with any attempt to graft onto the collapsed colonial cocoon will result in failure and a boon to organised crime. Immigration then remains a state security agency that is consigned to the periphery of border control rendered lame, ineffective and consigned to a time warp in the face of an assault of a wave of illicit migrants to T&T where we have lost control to determine who is a fit, able and a desirous person to enter and reside in T&T.

The reality is entirely different for civilian covert agencies charged with the task of state security. These agencies are viewed by all politicians as grave threats in the hands of their political opponents and powerful temptations in their hands. As a result, these agencies are totally politicised, enmeshed in power relations where ruling politicians tirelessly seek to exert hegemony over these agencies. Staff appointments are driven by powerful political considerations premised on loyalty. With a change of regime, the staff is gutted and given the politics of race in T&T staff excised and appointed reflects the race basis of politics in T&T. These agencies are enmeshed in power relations with politicians where the objective of the agency is to toe the line, to avert political witch hunting for fear of the political traitors and agents on board and to affirm relentlessly the political line of the political overlord regardless of its grounding in reality. The power relations between the politicians and the executive of these agencies have as its objectives: subservience to the political overlord, affirmation of the political discourse of the political overlord and their career path preservation at least during the term of office of the present political overlord. For with a change of party in power your career path can suddenly die. The power relations between the politicians and the executive of these agencies plus their internal power relations ensure that efforts to effectively execute the mandate handed to these agencies by law become lost in the rush of power relations. The power relations with the politicians are not seeking nor demanding effective operational conditions and the production of operational knowledge that impacts specific realities what they want are subservient, safe bitches.

What is required from the politicians is the passage and proclamation into law of a Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organisations (RICO) law of relevance to the crime terrain of T&T. An effective RICO law is strategically necessary to engage in long term engagements towards dismantling organised crime groups. A gang law without RICO is simply boxing with your strongest hand and foot incapacitated.

Those who utilise taxpayer’s money to write supposedly expert reports for politicians in the public domain as the latest in a long line on the T&T police service. Please note that reports and their recommendations for change written in a power relations vacuum soon end up collecting dust on a shelf. Potently illustrated by the position that the post of commissioner of police should become an elected post based on universal adult suffrage thereby creating another elected power pole other than the Prime Minister with control over a paramilitary force. Which will overturn the entire body of power relations between the politicians and the executive of the police service. How can one realistically expect politicians to embrace recommendations which are supposedly necessary but assault the hegemonic power relations between the politicians and the executive of the police service. Do you expect the executive of the police service to publicly embrace said recommendations? One cannot insist that recommendations are necessary, vital and strategic when formulated in a power relations vacuum. These are recommendations for La La Land! Fantasyland! Solutions are the domain of politicians and the executives of state security agencies not the “experts” who are excluded from the power relations that their “solutions” address.

 

Transnational Organised Crime in Belize 2017

Illicit Trafficking 2017 in the Caribbean: Belize

During the course of 2017 the depth of the integration of Belize into the trafficking pipelines that move product and illicit immigrants into Central America and illicit products out of Central America became even more apparent.

Illicit air flights into Belize especially in the Orange Walk area were illustrated by the discovery of an intact light aircraft in March 2017 and in November 2017 the burnt remains of a light aircraft were found in a cornfield in the same area of Belize. The burning of the aircraft after the illicit load is removed is the preferred methodology of the Mexican Transnational Trafficking Organisations (MTTOs) rather than abandoning the aircraft intact which leaves a trail to be followed. Loads of drugs continue to be flown into Belize then moved to Mexico or to other destinations. This operation takes place in Belize with a structure in place in Belize by the MTTOs to secure, traffick and protect this operation with gangland being a vital part of this structure.

http://www.reporter.bz/front-page/suspected-drug-plane-lands-in-belize/

http://amandala.com.bz/news/plane-destroyed-suspected-drug-plane/

http://www.reporter.bz/crime/drug-plane-found-burnt-in-corn-field/

The illicit products once in Belize are moved to various destinations within and external of Belize via various trafficking methodologies. In November 2016 some 22 pounds of cocaine were recovered from the occupants of a red SUV moving on the Philip Goldson international highway to Belize City. Cocaine entering Belize from the north moves toward Belize City and into its drug market for local consumption and for export. Cocaine entering Belize is now being trafficked into Mexico using trafficking methodology very similar to that used on the Mexico-USA border. Seen in the case of the SUV which crossed into Mexico from Belize at Corozal, Northern Border, Corozal District in December 2017 with some 6 kilos of cocaine in a compartment in the dashboard of the SUV. The driver of the SUV fled Mexican customs towards Belize where he crashed and fled the SUV. Cocaine entering Belize is moved into Mexico via a variety of trafficking methods which indicate the diversity of trafficking activity between Belize and Mexico, the intensity of trafficking activity on the ground and the depth of the operational presence of the MTTOs in Belize.

http://www.reporter.bz/front-page/police-seize-315000-worth-of-cocaine/

http://amandala.com.bz/news/suv-crashed-abandoned-6328-grams-cocaine-northern-border/

http://www.reporter.bz/crime/cocaine-smuggler-leaves-drugs-behind-flees-for-freedom/

The diversity of the illicit trafficking enterprise in Belize in 2017 was further illustrated by the interdiction of a motor vehicle on the Philip Goldson highway in September 2017 by the Orange Walk police with illegal Guatemalan immigrants and US dollars in cash. The US cash seized consisted of USD 6,000 in the possession of a non-Guatemalan occupant of the vehicle whilst USD 10,000 was found stored in the vehicle. It is clearly apparent that the occupants of the vehicle consisted of three Guatemalans who entered Belize illicitly on their way to Mexico in their quest to cross into the USA. They then hired the services of the human smugglers to cross them into Mexico the two individuals in the vehicle were then part of the service provided by the coyotes and the cash being transported was the property of the coyote for services rendered to clients. The smuggling of persons into and from Belize to Mexico is another potent indicator of the operational presence and hegemony of MTTOs in and over the illicit trades of Belize. Belize is then an operational member of the human smuggling enterprise of the MTTOs of the Caribbean basin.

http://www.reporter.bz/crime/authorities-foil-suspected-human-trafficking-attempt/

Another potent indication of the integration of Belize into transnational organised crime came in December 2017 with the report by Guatemalan media Guatevision.com that an organised crime group that purchased cigarettes in Belize, then smuggled the illicit cigarettes via the sea to Puerto Barrios, Guatemala then to El Salvador and Honduras where they were sold on the illicit cigarette markets of these three countries. This was an organised crime enterprise involving members of the Guatemalan military who provided impunity for the cigarette shipments from Belize to Guatemala and an operational presence in Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras. The question that arises is if the cigarettes moved and sold by this organised crime group entered Belize as illicit imports of cigarettes? One news report mentioned the poor condition the cigarettes seized were in.

http://www.reporter.bz/front-page/guatemalans-say-contraband-cigarettes-originated-in-belize/

http://amandala.com.bz/news/cigarette-ring-busted-guatemala-roots-belize/

The existence of dual flow operational trafficking pipelines in Belize is now apparent which points to the nature and sophistication of the terrain of transnational organised crime in Belize. Cocaine, heroin, methamphetamines, the precursors for the manufacture of synthetic and other illicit drugs, smuggling of licit products as cigarettes, cash smuggling and human smuggling are all primary products and activities of these dual flow operational pipelines.

The leaking of the Auditor General’s audit of the issuance of Belizean visas, passports and nationality by the Government of Belize for the period 2011-2013 in 2016 and the subsequent Senate investigation placed into the public domain the complicity of politicians and agencies of the Belizean state with transnational organised crime. The impunity offered and sold via Belizean official visas passports and nationality points to the power wielded by transnational organised crime in the social order of Belize which amounts to hegemony. This hegemony over the social order of Belize enhances the ability of transnational organised crime to project its power into the social orders towards hegemony over these social orders of the member states of CARICOM. Pax Mexicana!

http://www.reporter.bz/front-page/stench-of-corruption-ags-report-reveals-wrongdoing-and-proceedural-sidestepping/

http://amandala.com.bz/news/explosive-immigration-audit-leaked/

 

 

 

Maduro, Russia and T&T in the Gas Dance

The Evolution of the Dragon Gas Supply: Maduro, Venezuela, Russia and T&T

The government of T&T insisted repeatedly in the public domain that it’s seeking the supply of a daily volume of natural gas from Venezuela which Maduro and PDVSA has insisted will not be supplied fully by the Dragon field of the Mariscal Sucre Project situated offshore north of the Paria Peninsula, Sucre state, Venezuela. The T&T government then stated repeatedly that as the Patao and Mejillones fields of the Mariscal Sucre Project developed gas will be sold to T&T from these fields to satisfy the daily gas supply sought by the T&T government. But Maduro and PDVSA are yet to publicly affirm this position via a public supply agreement. Silence then is now the word on the said gas supply from Venezuela as the visit of Maduro to T&T to sign off on the supply deal is yet to materialise as at December 18, 2017. But Maduro has issued statements from Venezuela and on his foreign travels citing the gas supply deal with T&T as the prime example of Maduro’s embrace of the Caribbean and his new gas driven direction for Venezuela’s energy economy where gas exports via pipelines or as LNG is the new frontier. In these statements the daily gas supply designated for T&T is in line with the daily volume stated by the T&T government in public which means that gas from the Patao and Mejillones fields are in the agreement or what T&T desires will be drawn from the production of the Dragon field. What was clear on Maduro’s pronouncements on the gas supply deal with T&T both local and foreign is that T&T was now his bitch as he has us by the short and curly. In fact, the gas supply agreement with T&T was repeatedly cited by Maduro both local and foreign as the prime indicator of Venezuela’s intent on becoming a reliable gas supplier to its neighbours under the new gas economy. The T&T gas supply arrangement with Venezuela is cited by Maduro as an indicator of his legitimacy as President of Venezuela. Then there was word from Miraflores but we don’t know if that word was in fact accurate or fake news that Maduro had in fact signed off on the gas supply agreement but from the T&T government there is only silence.

On December 17, 2017 the play T&T was now caught in became clearer as Maduro met with Igor Sechin CEO of PJSC NK Rosneft in Venezuela where licences were authorised for Group Rosneft a subsidiary of NK Rosneft to explore and develop the non-associated gas reserves of the Patao and Mejillones fields of the Mariscal Sucre Project. Group Rosneft is authorised by these licences to be the operator of the project and to export all production of these fields as pipeline gas and/or LNG with Group Rosneft and PDVSA each holding 50% of the equity of the project. This event in Venezuela puts in train the Heads of Agreement signed with NK Rosneft in 2016. Russia in the house! T&T in its quest for gas from the Patao and Mejillones fields as of December 17, 2017 now has to dance with NK Rosneft and Putin.

The quest for gas from Venezuela has now sucked T&T into a geopolitical quagmire as gas from a Group Rosneft/PDVSA entity raises the issue of the impact of US sanctions on Russia and Venezuela and how it impacts the conduct of business with Rosneft and PDVSA by T&T entities. Can sanctions placed on Russia by the US be applied to products manufactured from gas sourced from the Rosneft/PDVSA entity in T&T exported to US markets? To step back from embracing Rosneft produced gas can have blow-back on the Dragon supply as the pipeline can slowly go dry. As a step back is a rejection of the business and political model of the gas supplier across the Gulf. Whilst dancing according to the rules of the gas supplier across the Gulf invites the push back from the hegemon in the room summed up in the person of the Donald. Possibly this is the aim of the Maduro dragon dance: to marginalise a geopolitical threat at the underbelly of Venezuela? Consider that in light of the oil play offshore Guyana at present.

T&T is between a rock and a very hard place as we have inadvertently entered a geopolitical game of thrones because of the failure of all ruling politicians of T&T to police the natural resources of T&T to ensure supply that serves the interests of T&T not that of the globalised transnationals. We failed miserably to learn from the Norwegian model. We are now a pawn in a geopolitical battle for regime survival vs regime change powerless to impact and determine the outcome of the game. A pawn to be played to the strategic benefit of the warring parties only. A geopolitical fiasco of our own making. The Dragon will dance on all of us in T&T!

https://www.rosneft.com/press/releases/item/180805/

https://www.rosneft.ru/press/releases/item/189139/

http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2447775&CategoryId=10717

http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2447836&CategoryId=10717

https://www.thedailyherald.sx/business/71948-venezuela-gives-rosneft-new-gas-field-concessions

 

2018: The Beginning of the End of the Drug Trafficking 1% of the Caribbean

2017 The Trafficking Pipelines of the MTTOs in the Caribbean are Fully Functional

2018 the Year of Phase Two

The 2017 drug report of the OFDT of France confirms the effectiveness of the illicit trafficking pipelines of the Caribbean under the control of the Mexican Transnational Trafficking Organisations (MTTOs) and their affiliates from Caribbean gangland. The OFDT 2017 report does this by concentrating in the report on the evolution of the French overseas departments in the Caribbean namely Martinique, Guadeloupe and French Guiana into in 2017 the third of the three dominant routes for cocaine entering mainland France and by extension Europe. The Eastern Caribbean Trafficking Pipeline (ECTP) created by the MTTOs for specific strategic reasons have in 2017 being all attained. Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands remain trafficking points to the US, the Dominican Republic (DR) continues to be the premier trafficking point to the US and trafficking points to France and Europe are booming in the French overseas departments. Added to this are the English speaking Caribbean islands, the British Overseas Territories and those islands in the Caribbean linked in some form to The Netherlands. Then there are the members of CARICOM on the South American mainland linked to the Caribbean drug trade by being supply points to trafficking pipelines namely Suriname and Guyana and finally there is the command and control centre of the Caribbean pipelines: Venezuela. Phase 1 of the strategic plan is then complete, functional and generating profit with its attendant order and its continuing impact on the social order of Caribbean states. What is noteworthy with the pipeline from the French Caribbean overseas departments is the two-way flow of the pipeline with cocaine moving from the Caribbean departments to France and hashish most noteworthy Moroccan hashish moving from France to the Caribbean departments. Hashish from this pipeline is entering the ganja trade of the Caribbean and is feeding ganja wars in these markets separate apart from the common war over supply of herbal ganja. There are then multiple ganja wars as supply is also coming in from Canada and the US. This two-way pipeline especially in Martinique has in 2016 to 2017 impacted the war for dominance in St Lucia seen in the rising murder rate. St Vincent was impacted in 2016 and it continued into 2017 seen in its rising murder rate by the dual flow of the pipeline linking the French Caribbean departments to France. The dual flow of the French Caribbean overseas departments/France pipeline is an indicator of the possibility of pipelines in the Caribbean becoming dual flow pipelines from 2018. Pipelines to Europe and West Africa can become dual flow pipelines if not so already.

The northern quadrant of the Caribbean island chain is now exhibiting the impact of the increased flow of illicit product through these islands to primarily the US and Europe with Canada in a trailing third place. The Bahamas is in play as the jump off point to Florida as south Florida especially is once again a point of entry to the US with product entering The Bahamas from various jump off points. In The Bahamas cocaine and ganja are the prime commodities and a move to local production of ganja is apparent. The increased flow of product into Jamaica for export via the pipelines has impacted Jamaican gangland is combined with the dominance of Jamaica as the premier exporter of ganja in the Caribbean island chain. Jamaican transnational organised crime dominates the export of ganja and is involved in the export of cocaine as they are affiliates of the MTTOs. Through their affiliation with the MTTOs Jamaican transnational organised crime now has an evolved Caribbean operational presence. At the apex of the hierarchy Shower continues to exert hegemony over Jamaican gangland. These developments have fundamentally changed the terrain of gun violence in Jamaica as Montego Bay, the command and control centre of Jamaican trafficking, is now the unrivalled gun murder capital of Jamaica. Those excluded from the bounty of trafficking under the hegemony of the MTTOs and their Jamaican affiliates now wreak bloody revenge on the poor and underclass of St James parish, Cornwall county, Jamaica. The Dominican Republic continues to be the premier trafficking point of the Caribbean island chain. A Dominican ethnic nexus has now evolved between the drug trade, the DR, DR ethnic gangs in the US, Europe and the Caribbean comprising Dominican citizens and/or members of the Dominican Diaspora. On the eastern seaboard of the US Dominicans and Dominican gangs are now players in the drug trade of this region of the US and are now setting up operations in the rest of the USA. This reality is now expressed in the DR with the operational presence of these groups in the DR, the Caribbean and Latin America. The DR operational presence in Spain is also noted. What has moved the Dominicans into positions of power in the trade is their affiliation to the MTTOs.

The MTTOs will not continue to depend on the DR as the premier trafficking point of the Caribbean island chain. The strategy implemented is to create alternate trafficking points to form a series of trafficking points enabling a fail-safe system that drives a tsunami of product to markets of the North Atlantic. In this strategy Puerto Rico, Haiti, the Bahamas and Jamaica are the chosen alternates. Puerto Rico is a work in progress and the financial difficulties of the state, the damage wrought by hurricane Maria with the resulting socio-economic dislocation and the exodus from Puerto Rico are windfalls for the strategic agenda of the MTTOs for Puerto Rico. The affiliate status of specific organisations of Puerto Rican gangland with the MTTOs in Puerto Rico and the US mainland has resulted in the rise to prominence of these organisations and members of the Puerto Rican Diaspora in the trade in the US. The days where Puerto Ricans were subservient to the Dominicans in the illicit trades is now being challenged as they create spaces under their dominance. Haiti and Haitian organised crime affiliated to the MTTOs both in Haiti and the US are charged with the task of evolving Haiti into a premier trafficking point. In this task they are also involved in trafficking to and from The Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands and in the voluminous cross-border trafficking with the DR. In the network of trafficking pipelines established and functioning by the MTTOs Jamaica is linked to Central America especially Honduras, to Haiti, The Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These pipelines complement the pipelines that link Jamaica to all points in the Caribbean island chain, Guyana, Suriname, Venezuela and Central America. These are all multi-product pipelines with dual flow capacity. It’s then obvious that the task at hand is diversification of the trafficking mechanism in the Caribbean which is well in train and functional. In 2017 the Caribbean basin is then integrated into a network of trafficking routes and pipelines under the hegemony of the MTTOs, their partners as Italian organised crime and their Caribbean gangland affiliates. What is now apparent is the movement of European gangland affiliates of the MTTOs and their partners into the Caribbean for the purpose of trafficking drugs to Europe and to replicate illicit enterprises in the Caribbean they were adept at in Europe such as: payment card scamming, gambling, prostitution and fake goods. The dynamic of Pax Mexicana is then unfolding in its diversity.

2018 The Imperative of Phase Two

In 2018 and thereafter as the strategy of the MTTOs for the Caribbean takes hold and moves to exert hegemony over drug trafficking in the Caribbean the nature of drug trafficking will be further fundamentally changed at its core and this will impact further social orders of the Caribbean. The nature of the drug supply will forever change as the products of the MTTOs will flow only within the membership of the association of the MTTOs: the MTTOs, their partners, affiliates and the affiliates of their partners and affiliates. Wholesale markets will be squeezed of supply and the dislocation will heighten the gun violence. In fact, wholesale markets will collapse which enables the strategic move of The Association/Asociacion to dominate all Caribbean retail markets for products traded by The Association: cocaine, ganja, meth and other synthetic drugs.

The issue of the security and integrity of the networks of The Association/Asociacion is in 2018 a pressing issue demanding action. One specific threat posed to the networks of The Association/Asociacion in the Caribbean arises from the old order of the Valle Norte organisation of Colombia in the Caribbean which The Association/Asociacion is intent on eliminating from the Caribbean. This Valle Norte order created indigenous Caribbean traffickers resident in the Caribbean who are the dominant group of the Caribbean oligarchy ensconced within the Caribbean private sector. These oligarchs dominate the social order of the Caribbean territory there they are resident and are especially linked to the politicians of the Caribbean and agents of the state. The Association/Asociacion and these traffickers are then on a collision course as the operational presence of The Association/Asociacion intensifies in the Caribbean towards exerting hegemony over the illicit trades as the supply of product to these oligarchs dry up save and except they become affiliates. The threat arises with the response of these oligarchs to this supply reality of the MTTOs. Will they utilise their political influence and social dominance to have Caribbean states engage with the MTTOs in a bid to ensure their survival in the illicit drug business? The question then in 2018 is what will be the strategic response of The Association/Asociacion to this threat? The oligarchs are especially vulnerable as they have no links to supply, have no trafficking resources The Association/Asociacion needs and worse yet they have no presence in the consumer markets of the US and Europe that merit associational status. These oligarchs are simply aberrations created by a Colombian strategy that has failed and is now being wiped off the drug map of the world by The Association/Asociacion as they recreate the order in their image and likeness.

Can these oligarchs with their power in a comparatively small state space simply surrender to The Association/Asociacion and bow out or settle for what they are afforded? Can they resist the urge to protect their turf by using their political power? In so doing they will present a potent threat to The Association/Asociacion which must be answered. The answer will be in keeping with how similar situations were handled in other areas one example being Central America. Whatever the response the social orders of the Caribbean will be deeply impacted with one result of the displacement of the drug trafficking oligarchs being political instability as revelations of illicit activities and linkages to politicians and agents of the state enter the public domain along with requests for extradition. Then there are the instances of assassinations/hits that send the message certainly not of plata o plomo as there is no silver/plata to be had. It’s already apparent in the run up to 2018 that the oligarchs are under pressure and some have already capitulated to The Association/Asociacion. Only the passage of time will reveal it all especially how the drug trafficking oligarchs react to the new order that has little space for them in their present configuration. Whatever the outcome the social order of Caribbean states will be impacted at its core power relations will its attendant blowback. Pax Mexicana!