Monthly Archives: June 2014

BP TTs LNG excluded

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/17/us-bp-lng-idUSKBN0ES0O920140617

The article above deals with a 20 year LNG supply deal between China and BP the command and control entity for BPTT but not for TT taxation purposes. China demanded that in order for BP to access the Chinese energy market as a supplier the price to China must be lower than Asian spot prices for LNG the highest in the world at present. It is reported that BP had to offer China a portfolio contract where the price of the LNG is pegged to US gas prices and world oil prices and China had to have the right to re-sell LNG it purchased. Sources have indicated that the LNG to be sold by BP to China will come from US shale gas LNG produced at Freeport, Texas. It is now apparent that the cost structure of BPTT LNG has excluded it from the supply nexus to China simply because the paradigm that created the four trains at Point Fortin was for export to the US not China especially under portfolio contracts. US shale gas is then the lowest cost supplier of feedstock to LNG trains a cost which T&T cannot compete with and it’s US shale gas feedstock that is opening the huge potential Chinese LNG market to BP and BG not T&T gas. As a nation we are now faced with multiple crises that are merging to form a perfect storm. Remember the T&T state lives off energy revenue and a whole slew of private sector operators of T&T cannot survive without the foreign exchange generated by the energy sector. Spend, consume for soon the crises becomes the perfect storm. Readers can read my book: “The geo-politics of LNG in Trinidad and Venezuela in the 21st century” available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble etc for more detail on this reality.

 

The US official said it

http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Illicit-drug-trafficking-from-the-Caribbean-up—US-official_17005247

http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/US-insists-murder-of-T-T-prosecutor-was-organised_17013159

 

William Brownfield of the US State Department insisted that the Seetahal assassination was linked to the drug trade as it was the act of a transnational organised drug trafficking organisation. The Us Federal state said it and the government of T&T is silent which projects the implication that this reality spoken of by Brownfield simply does not exist in T&T. I stated the obvious on national television and in this blog which has now been supported by Brownfield. To those at UWI who insist that my work is fabrication and myth necessitating my dismissal from UWI please note that Brownfield is also speaking myths. The question arises as to the nature of and the agenda of the string puller at UWI? A link with the Brownfield position is listed above.

William Brownfield does not speak from the basis of crime scene data. Brownfield is the designated US Federal government spokesperson on this issue and he is speaking from the intelligence collected by the most extensive covert intelligence collection structure in this part of the world both electronic/signals and HUMINT. We therefore question the word of Brownfield at our own peril. Brownfield speaks from a covert structure that has extensive contacts with the Sinaloa Federation so when he says transnational drug organised crime take note as your house is on fire. secondly no local organised crime group separate and apart from the Mexican cartels can hire a Mexican transnational globalised organised crime group to execute a hit which does not fit into the strategic plan of the transnational. Transnationals do not hire themselves out to local underlings including those who brought them into T&T. That is the reality Brownfield is alluding to.

Understand also that a suppressed AR15 sounds like a 9mm and an AR15 is reworked to handle larger rounds whilst suppressed and 50 calibre rifles go through APCs trapped in the barrow lanes of of the urban setting and it has happened already where a gang soldier brandishing an RPG stood down a Police mechanised patrol up an infamous hill on a Christmas Eve night in the past. The gun boats never stopped and were never stopped supplying such light weapons now the Mexican cartels supply their speciality weapons. A dangerous and sick game played by the politicians has now turned terminal.

The Minister’s folly/broken window

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1982/03/broken-windows/304465/

I have described the agenda that is being executed on the ground and one can if one wants to see the hand that is pulling the strings. What is apparent is that the Minister of National Security and the First Division of the T&T Police Service are at best in acute denial or at worst are pursuing a strategy of response that is driven by the need to win votes in the short term. The reality is that what is now needed and necessary to address the present security crisis of T&T is perceived as not flowing in accord with the politics of race and the politics of race trumps our nation’s security. Then the response to the agenda being implemented on the ground is to focus of the foot soldiers of the agenda whilst the illicit drugs and gun trades that is driving the agenda remains untouched. You are dealing with the skin lesions whilst the disease attacks and destroys the organs of the state. Do you think that the persons pulling the strings live in the so-called “hot spots”? The so-called “hot spots” are in fact the fall guys of the game being played by the TTPS and the politicians as they are supposed to be the criminogenic repositories of Trinidad from which the crime disease flows from infecting the rest of T&T. For refusing to become integrated into the illicit/licit state order of T&T by accepting the place allocated to them in the social order these “hot spots” will then pay with the blood of their inhabitants. Remember in T&T we don’t shoot down the drug traffickers and illicit gun sellers who are decent, respectable and upstanding citizens we don’t even arrest them we shoot those at the end of the business chain in the “hot spots”. Remember in T&T we don’t shoot down the apex of the gangster structure that still live in the “hot spots” many now commute to work we shoot down their go fors, car washers and doubles boys. Never forget that the war in the “hot spots” has a race veneer to it especially in an election year. Fear of a black planet. Into this maelstrom now steps the Minister of National Security with his relentless mouthing of his belief in something called “broken windows theory”. Mouthed by Wilson etc in 1982 it is supposed to be a theory on policing for the USA and supposedly embraced and utilised by Bratton in New York City. This is but another example of grabbing US agendas clothed in a US academic criminological paradigm and hoping to apply it to realities in T&T. T&T is as state located in the Caribbean illicit drug transition zone where the state has been compromised by illicit trafficking this reality alone demands a paradigm of policing rooted in this reality. Wilson etc did not write for our reality they know nothing of our reality and care nothing for our reality. The Minister should learn the reality that Bratton knows nothing about policing in a drug transition zone state because he has never run a police service in a drug transition zone state. In service to the US why didn’t Bratton take over the police service of Puerto Rico which collapsed under the assault of the Puerto Rican drug trade forcing the US Federal government to intervene and set about the task of re-branding, re-building the Puerto Rico police department. The lesson for T&T is that the police department of the largest expanse of US territory in the Caribbean drug transition zone has collapsed. And the police department of the US Virgin Island is also under intense pressure. New York City is not in the Caribbean drug transition zone policing in New York is simply not relevant to our reality. The Minister must now forget Bratton and go to Puerto Rico and see the policing crisis in US territory in living colour then ask what are they doing to fix the problem. There is where the lessons lie not on Broadway. The Minister must also understand that academic criminologists knows nothing of our reality because they don’t pursue field work that can result in their death hence their paltry understanding of the illicit trades of the Caribbean. Academic criminologists intend to be alive, well off and irrelevant that is their survival strategy. They are then masters at faking it and a whole structure of faking it has evolved to trap grant money and consultancies. They simply sing the song the piper is paying for. They are then part of the problem not the solution as they feed off the misery of our peoples as corbeaux. In 1978 I got into the criminology game instructed by Kenneth Pryce and from the outset my choice was to understand the illicit trades making me a observer but never an academic criminologist. In fact what is a criminologist? The link above is to Wilson etc on broken windows.

 

 

Guyana: T&Ts Siamese twin

Writing about a reality I am trapped in knowing fully well that there will be no change for the better forces one to retreat into silence whilst you review your alternatives and escape routes out of here. At my age the vision of economic migration is now dead and the work that was put down on my PhD at UWI, St Augustine was a lesson in my powerless as the old colonial structure termed the Royal Charter shields UWI from High Court action. In 2014 a citizen of T&T, a student of UWI cannot in the case of discrimination in the process of the award of a degree seek out redress in the High Court of T&T yet that same institution wants TT 1 billion of T&T tax payer dollars to run its annual affairs. In a social order where the licit order is driven by illicit acts committed with impunity by those who are supposed to be under the rule of law the illicit order infiltrates the licit order and eventually overthrows the licit order. Remember this is not corruption this is a state of illicit impunity by those charged with the rule of law and they are simply knocked over by an illicit force more powerful than they are. This is Guyana today and the force is the Mexican cartels with T&T next.

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/nymemo.pdf

http://www.kaieteurnewsonline.com/2014/02/28/cocaine-in-achar-canada-based-cosmetologist-arraigned-for-drug-trafficking/

http://www.kaieteurnewsonline.com/2014/03/28/mahaica-shipper-caught-with-cocaine-in-fake-awaras/

http://www.kaieteurnewsonline.com/2014/04/08/berbice-businessman-remanded-for-cocaine-in-pastries/

http://www.kaieteurnewsonline.com/2013/11/21/ghana-arrest-guyanese-crew-seize-cocaine-trawler/

http://www.kaieteurnewsonline.com/2013/08/15/heightened-security-checks-credited-for-cocaine-in-ochro-bust/

http://newssourcegy.com/news/guyanese-busted-at-jfk-with-cocaine-in-custard-powder-packets/

http://newssourcegy.com/news/guyanese-man-busted-with-cocaine-in-pepper-sauce-at-jfk/

http://www.kaieteurnewshonline.com/2014/06/19/passenger-from-guyana-nabbed-with-cocaine-at-jfk/

http://guyanachronicle.com/four-dead-after-unknowingly-ingesting-cocaine-laced-sss-tonic/

Guyana in the 1990s became a site for illicit drug labs as coca paste was flown in and turned into cocaine hydrochloride. This operation was under the control of the Colombian and Venezuelan trafficking organisations. The Guyanese hinterland belonged to these organisations with cocaine moving out of Guyana to Suriname and into Venezuela, Brazil and French Guiana. With the erection of the Lethem bridge that connects Guyana to Brazil the volumeĀ  of traffic into Brazil exploded. The volume of product to be trafficked and the chronically underdeveloped nature of the Guyanese transport system and its international connections led to the frantic involvement of all sectors of the social order in trafficking. Every single mode of transport Guyana possessed was placed under the trafficking regime. Hence you will see in the links provided the case of the Guyanese trawler interdicted off Ghana loaded with cocaine from Guyana bound for Ghana note the composition of the crew and understand the reason for the flow of persons from West Africa to the Caribbean today. Most importantly look at the first link listed and note the evidence for the link that presently exists in Guyana between Italian-American crime families, Italian organised crime, Mexican cartels and Mexican cartel operations in Guyana. There are Mexican cartel operations in Guyana sending cocaine from Guyana to the world utilising Guyanese made products. soon, if it is not happening already partners in Guyanese businesses not known before will begin appearing especially in those producing products worthy of export and in the gold and diamond fields of Guyana. Already Guyana is the most intense trafficking point in Caribbean given the size of its economy and its chronic underdevelopment. To understand the depth of the wave of trafficking that has swept the Guyanese social order note the link on the deaths arising from ingesting SSS tonic. The strategy to flood Brazil with product has then saturated Guyana with product available for transport and this is the deliberate strategy of the Mexican cartels controlling the business in Guyana today. This industry has exploded whilst the Guyanese politicians live in a 1960s time warp making Guyana the best investment to-date for the Mexican cartels in the Caribbean but it is now faced with serious limitations. Guyana presents an international trafficking bottle-neck to the Mexicans cartels given the poor international linkages of Guyana to world trade routes. With all that product to move Trinidad beckons as the lighthouse on the darkest night. T&T has everything Guyana does not have and the linkages between the two abound. Creating an export point in T&T is then necessary for the success of the Mexican cartels venture in Guyana. To understand the depth of the Mexican cartels investment in Guyana note that ganja fields raided by the police are 30 to 50 acres in expanse. Now imagine the size of cartel ganja fields? Pax Mexicana.

Fingers pointing to Apocalypse: T&T style

Two incidents reported in the printed media indicate the change that is now sweeping over T&T gangland. Groups are standing their ground and engaging in firefights with the Police one case with an AK47 and the other with an AR15. The Mexican cartels instil military discipline in their affiliates, train them in military arts of war then arm them with the firepower to literally swamp the Police with lead. The Mexican cartels intend to wield superior firepower against the Police. The affiliates of the Mexican cartels are given the illicit economic enterprises not only to make the members rich but also to create the basis for defending their illicit enterprises with their lives. This strategy is devised to collapse an already moribund state and the Mexican cartels want the politicians to militarise the response of the state because when you send your military to police civilians it becomes much more easier to corrupt the military compared to when they are cloistered in their barracks. The military responds to the drug war as the military only can and this explodes the level of violence which hastens the collapse of the state. This assault will not be confined to the so-called “hot-spots” as areas previously “quiet” will now be woken up. The knee-jerk political reaction will be a legislative agenda which will further erode personal liberties but the failure to deal with the illicit drug trade results in vibrant resistance and overflowing jails which now become under the control of prison gangs who are affiliated to the Mexican cartels which in effect means the Mexican cartels control the prison system. At this stage the Mexican cartels will move to eliminate the decent, respectable upstanding T&T citizens who are drug traffickers which will literally rip to shreds the legitimacy of the social order creating a vacuum of legitimacy because of the far reaching power they wield in the T&T social order. Say hello to Guatemala and Honduras as we have arrived at this stage.

The Security Crisis of 2014: T&T

The preceding post was necessary to outline the context. In 2014 there is nothing that T&T has that the US strategically needs. The days of molly cuddling T&T politicians from the decade of the 1990s is over. What this means is that T&T now has to protect its energy infrastructure minus the US security umbrella that was necessary during the days of US energy dependence on T&T LNG. T&T is now on its own and our efforts in this realm is to say the least sadly lacking. During the days of US energy dependence T&T politicians became delusional to the point of believing that they could call shots for the US to abide by. The last PNM PM according to the Wikileaks cables insisted to the US that they pay for T&T patrolling up the islands with the OPVs and in turn must supply military hardware to T&T that the PM listed on his wish list. Well don’t guess the US response just read the relevant section of my book: “Cocaine trafficking in the Caribbean and West Africa in the era of the Mexican cartels”. The next government went even further by cancelling the OPVs and failing to effectively patrol period even in T&T waters. But this delusion is dangerously destructive in the present government as it destroyed the previous as the US is now liberated from T&T LNG, continues to draw down on its military assets in the Caribbean and the tidal wave of illicit drugs created by the Mexican cartels continue to wash over the Caribbean creating a new illicit order. And in response T&T is dead in the water. Those who mistake US reduction of military assets in the Caribbean for US weakness is in for a rude awakening. There is no need for molly cuddling T&T politicians ever again by the US what we can therefore expect is a US response to threats to its security emanating from T&T is the full court press as utilised in Caribbean countries as the Dominican Republic. When faced with a government that does not want to see much less to act upon the threat posed to US security there are various means available to bring persuasion to bear. Remember this is the post 9/11 era of relations between an hegemon and a recalcitrant, weak state and various forms of dark ops are always on the menu. It is now abundantly apparent in 2014 that the politics of race cannot empower us to deal with the geopolitical realities of the globalised world for the politics of race is the gift of massa to all of us to ensure our post colonial subservience. The politics of race cannot allow us to see and visualise the nature of power in T&T and the world in 2014 how then can we grapple with an entity we cannot see and understand?

The collapsed paradigm of T&T’s LNG

I addition to the illicit trades of the Caribbean I monitor on a daily basis the geopolitics of LNG in T&T and Venezuela. Years of work resulted in my publication titled: “The geo-politics of LNG in T&T and Venezuela in the 21st century” available online in dinosaur book form and e-book formats. Under the UNC administration 1995-2000 the permission to build Trains 1 to 3 of Atlantic LNG was granted. where non-associated gas would be turned into liquid for export. The major player in this venture was the globalised transantional energy giant BP Plc. The paradigm driving the investment to create the LNG production trains at Point Fortin, Trinidad insisted that well into the 21st century the US will experience an energy deficit forcing the US to became ever more dependant on imported energy thereby creating a booming energy market in the US for imported energy. This ever expanding US energy deficit will yield to the companies super profits as the business model called for squeezing costs on the production side especially taxes and royalties due to nations owning the gas feedstock whilst heightening the dependence of the energy deficit nation on imported energy sources. Financing to erect the trains of T&T was done using the tolling method where long term supply contracts covered the total production capacity of each train for a specific period of time were the security for the funding. By 2008 it became glaringly apparent that the US political agenda had in fact destroyed the paradigm forever that underpins the T&T LNG order. The shale gas revolution of the US unleashed cheap natural gas in ever increasing volumes at low prices that ended the US energy deficit and therefore the importation of LNG in volumes that will now make the four trains loss leaders. New markets had the then to be created but the only viable markets are in Asia and Latin America with the Latin American markets way smaller than the Asian markets. Both markets do not offer long term contracts as you must win competitive bids for the supply of defined loads within a time frame. T&T LNG has then to leave T&T and go all the way to Asia which resulted in the focus on the Latin American market as there is no other choice as the operator’s of LNG T&T have to live with this new reality. The US energy market is changing rapidly and the fact that LNG import terminals are now being turned into LNG export terminals to serve US LNG trains using shale gas as feedstock reveals the threat to the Latin American market from US shale gas LNG. What is most revealing is that BG a player in the T&T LNG sector is a major investor in the LNG export sector of the US and BP is not far behind. This is called hedging your bets as a globalised transnational but T&T hedged its bets on a failed, collapsed, paradigm. The next reality that must be understood is the technological revolution that is sweeping the LNG production sector in the US as a result of the need to monetise abundant shale gas supplies selling at prices on or about 4 USD. LNG can now be produced profitably in trains and transported in ships etc that are much smaller in scale as the technology used in T&T. LNG markets that are too small for plants as those in T&T are now viable prospects for this technology using US shale gas. The first target is every small market in Latin America and the Caribbean. Another revolution in train is the re-investment in America especially in the Gulf states as Louisiana towards the creation of industries using gas as feedstock. Industries which fled the US because of the US energy deficit producing offshore for export to the US are now returning to the US and investors with no footprint in the US are announcing their intentions to invest in industrial complexes. Any investor coming to T&T say to invest today in a methanol plant raises the questions : why not in the US? do you expect us to match the US gas price and give much more concessions than say the state of Louisiana in order to win this investment. What is in it for the people of T&T are we giving away our gas to allow politicians to beat their rotund chest? Never forget in the negotiations for the first three trains of LNG the then UNC government gave away the family jewels and T&T’s patrimony. We can therefore expect that the present government is under extreme pressure by the gas producers and the users of gas as feedstock to make the cost of gas more competitive read as: we want a bligh. BP has publicly stated that a new reality obtains for the gas sector in T&T and it wants new terms of endearment/engagement. But the salient question remains: has successive governments of T&T up to the present collected all the taxes etc due to T&T under our existing legislation? The evidence says no!