Monthly Archives: November 2014

The LNG market today

The T&T minister of energy propaganda insists that the price of LNG in Asia is presently high enough to offset the loss of revenue arising from the fall in oil prices. But the talking heads of Atlantic state publicly that its LNG goes to primarily Latin America, Asia, Europe. There are no long term contracts for the sale of LNG to users in Latin America and Asia and the prices received are way above that of US henry hub prices. Why then does the gas price used for national budgets reflect the low prices of US henry hub? Is it because of the reality that the taxation of trains 1 to 3 at Atlantic are set at US henry hub prices and there is no contingency in the contract to allow T&T to tax the wealth derived from LNG sold outside of the US? Is the windfall not being shared by the people of T&T? At present the LNG markets in Japan and South Korea are being impacted by LNG purchased and held in storage because of lower demand in these markets which will impact demand into the first quarter of 2015. As a result prices are falling because of lower demand and increased supply and supply is carded to increase in 2015 as plants in Australia come online. The major reality to impact LNG demand in Asia in 2015 is Japan’s commitment to re-start some of its idled nuclear generating capacity. The decision to idle its nuclear plants came at a high price to the Japanese economy given the high prices it was forced to pay for LNG to feed its power generating plants. The future then points to the search for alternate energy sources in Asia unless LNG prices reflect demand realities in Asia and the alternate suppliers are lining up. The major LNG buyers in Latin America are Brazil and Argentina and the levels of demand in both countries are impacted by specific realities. At present Argentina has product delivered stored in LNG tankers offshore because quantities purchased outstripped demand. Again suppliers to these markets are lining up especially from the US and by 2016 if not sooner the incursions will begin. The reality then is that product produced at Atlantic is predominantly sold via tender bids won for a single load or multiple loads within a fixed time frame. Production planning is then now entirely different to the days of long-term contracts and the question is: where does gas curtailment fit into this new scenario? Are we as a nation extracting the maximum possible benefit from LNG export production given the rapidly changing nature of the supply side of the LNG market? Readers can check my book: “The geo-politics of LNG in Trinidad and Tobago and Venezuela in the 21st century”

https://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/25583589/europe-to-suck-up-surplus-global-lng-supplies-as-prices-tumble/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-26/vitol-sees-new-lng-supply-adding-to-glut-as-demand-declines.html

Why they can’t say Pax Mexicana!

Commander Kelly of US Southern Command recently visited Belize, Guatemala and Honduras in pursuit of the war against “transnational organised crime” operations in the three countries visited. General Kelly just cannot say Mexican transnational organised crime but he articulates the danger posed to the US by said transnational crime as it operates in the three named countries. The refusal to say Mexican changes nothing on the ground and the fact that the so-called war on the cartels in Mexico means very little in Belize, Guatemala and Honduras. Since 2006 is there a war on the cartels and between the cartels in Mexico? Only in western media. Belize is a member of CARICOM and named by the US as a state where “transnational organised crime” poses a threat to the US. What of the threat to CARICOM and the rest of the Caribbean basin? Denial answers in the negative! The broken windows man in an article carried in the Express online stated that US DEA was involved with the investigation in the assassination of Dana Seetahal and eventually the US DEA will get results. Is the US DEA now part of the T&T national security apparatus? It is expected that with a T&T government request the US FBI can respond within the limits set by law and treaty. The US DEA has a specific mandate under US Federal law. Is then the assassination the product of a conspiracy or deliberate action of members of a trafficking organisation that breaks US law in the course of their operations? Is it then the product of a transnational organised crime group that moves product to the US? Is then the statement of the US Under secretary of State  for narcotics control then correct when he insisted that the assassination was the action of a transnational organised crime group? Over to the broken windows man. Again my position is proving correct but not correct for employment at UWI, St Augustine! UWI demands denial correctness. The most masked aspect of the illicit trades of the Caribbean is the washing of the money and one aspect of this is transporting the cash money. At some point in the laundering cycle the cash has to be moved and placed in the washer which necessitates transportation. Click on the links and experience illicit instances of transporting cash money in the Caribbean.

http://dominicanewsonline.com/news/homepage/news/crime-court-law/dominican-fined-st-vincent-money-laundering/
http://www.kaieteurnewsonline.com/2014/11/26/guyanese-pilot-caught-with-us620k-stashed-in-private-jet-en-route-to-gt/

Click the links for Kelly and broken windows man.

http://www.southcom.mil/newsroom/Pages/SOUTHCOM-commander-visits-Belize,-Guatemala,-Honduras;-discusses-partnerships-to-fight-transnational-criminal-organizations.aspx

http://www.trinidadexpress.com/news/Griffith-With-DEA-on-the-job-Danas-killers-cant-escape-283926021.html

Message from Islamic State: DEAL WITH IT

The strategy of recruitment of Islamic State has evolved in a bid to deal with informers from the West joining as mujahid on hijra/Islamic warriors fleeing the West. It is now common that an Islamic State sheikh has to vouch for the mujahid on hijra. Find the sheikh you finger the recruiter!!! Click the link for the story.    http://www.aawsat.net/2014/11/article55338349

The Discourse of the Islamic State has now changed to embrace those in the West who cannot make hijra to the Khalifah. Those unable must make Jihad in the West by any means necessary: poison, chopping, motor vehicle murder etc, etc. Click the link.

http://www.memri.org/clip/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/4614.htm

November 26, 2014 The broken windows man and the vast national security apparatus must now determine if an Islamic State shaykh/sheikh is present in T&T. Anyone for extra jumbo pepper shrimps/strimps???

Media reports, Islamic State and reality

The imperative to unleash reports that scoop your competitors especially in the for profit media raises the question of the accuracy of such scoops especially when the persons reporting simply don’t understand the complex reality of what they are reporting on because this reality is outside of their worldview. To put it simply can the kaffirun/unbelievers report on Islamic State when they don’t/cannot understand much less translate the reality they are supposedly reporting on? One such case in point is the CCN TV6 report on the supposed IS recruiter for T&T aired November 11, 2014. What was described was not an IS recruiter but an IS logistic facilitator in the CCN TV 6 report. An IS recruiter is in the face of the prospective recruits vetting them whilst imparting the discourse of IS. This is a hands on approach that involves vetting and indoctrination. Does the reputed recruiter in Venezuela according to the news report wield personal knowledge of the discourse of IS which enables dissemination and indoctrination? This is the IS model recruiter: a male Muslim so versed in the discourse of IS combined with the power of dissemination and persuasion to win followers to the call of IS. In Islam it is called da’wa. The ideal recruiter is then a Sheik. Is then the story fabricated and fed to the media by persons intent on masking the identity of the actual recruiter? The news report is weighed down with inconsistencies which don’t flow with reality on the ground. The reality of the Venezuelan drug trade and the reality of the operational protocols of Islamic State raise concerns of accuracy. It will be an operational disaster for the national security apparatus to believe that IS employs mercenaries and a kaffir gang banger will be an ideal IS recruit. I have listed an interview with an IS recruiter from Der Spiegel online to expose readers to the discursive depth of an IS recruiter. Note the commitment to the IS worldview.

tp://www.tv6tnt.com/home/rotator/MASTERMIND-ISIS-RECRUITER-282357571.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/islamic-state-interview-with-an-extremist-recruiter-a-999557.html

November 13, 2014 Click on the link from MEMRI and experience the fundamental contradiction between Al Qaeda and Islamic State I have written repeatedly about. Islamic State is not an organic growth of the discourse of Al Qaeda. I de-constructed the discourse of  Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi in my book “Salafi Jihadi Discourse of Sunni Islam in the 21th century”

http://www.memri.org/clip/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/4596.htm

November 13, 2014 The group of Trinbagonians detained in Venezuela along with a Haitian and two members of the Bolivarian Police were yesterday charged and detained to face trial. Click the Prensa Latina link.

http://www.plenglish.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3266821&Itemid=1

Signs of Pax Mexicana Caribbean style

In 2010 there was the jail break at Bordelais correctional centre, St Lucia where two Venezuelan drug traffickers made their dramatic exit from the facility and from St Lucia with impunity. Then in 2014 there was the jail break at the facility in Haiti newly built by the Canadian government in the aftermath of the 2010 earthquake where drug traffickers escaped and are still free. On October 24, 2014 the Najayo prison in the Dominican Republic was attacked externally by armed men and internally by armed inmates resulting in the death of four and injury to 14 but the attempted jail break was a failure. Najayo prison is the facility that houses a significant majority of persons incarcerated for crimes linked to the thriving illicit drug trade of the Dominican Republic including murders. This attack is then a message sent. Pax Mexicana is therefore sending a loud message that the ramshackle, overcrowded prisons of the Caribbean with their suspect managers will not hold them. This message applies only to those countries that do arrest players in this business as most do not in the Caribbean. In July 2014 Ramon Cervantes Sr of Orange Walk, Belize was kidnapped and murdered. The alleged mastermind of the crime was named as Manual Castillo who at this time is on the run. The family of Ramon Cervantes made public a tape recording of a conversation with allegedly Manual Castillo who insisted that a Mexican gang, a politician and eight members of the Belize police were the ones responsible for the death of Cervantes. In the tape recording supposedly Castillo states that he was given the contract to kill Cervantes but he refused. In the scheme of things Manual Castillo is marked for death for a variety of reasons. A sicario cannot refuse to carry out an order and live. Reads and smells like Juarez, Mexico. The first batch of links deal with the jailbreaks and prison life in Antigua and Barbuda whilst the second deals with Belize.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/caribbean/news/story/2010/08/printable/100811_stluciaprison.shtml
http://www.thevoiceslu.com/local_news/2010/august/10_08_10/JAIL_BREAK.htm
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/4-dead-during-attempted-dominican-prison-break/2014/10/24/5ef5a5da-5bcb-11e4-9d6c-756a229d8b18_story.html
http://antiguaobserver.com/sex-drugs-and-gangs-rampant-at-her-majestys-prison/

http://amandala.com.bz/news/cartel-vibes-sugar-city/

November 19, 2014 What is perhaps the most potent instance to-date of the rapid evolution of the Caribbean illicit drug trade was reported from Gatwick airport, UK. The rope used to secure a pallet of air cargo from Jamaica was found to contain cocaine at its core. The rope was woven around the core of cocaine in keeping with the methodology of the most sophisticated and effective method of smuggling cocaine termed the darkness in the business. Every single piece of cordage from the Caribbean is now under suspicion. Another brick in the wall of the tsunami of product emanating from the Caribbean. The other link reports on the interdiction of cocaine in a suitcase from Trinidad at JFK, New York.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/cocaine-worth-500k-found-hidden-4649725

http://nypost.com/2014/11/19/k-9-cop-sniffs-out-suitcase-filled-with-cocaine-at-jfk/

 

The price of oil: REALITY

The fall of West Texas Intermediate crude prices on the mercantile markets of the North Atlantic below 80 USD per barrel is not the same event T&T has experienced in the past. This price fall is the result of the dramatic change in the structure of supply in the largest energy import economy of the North Atlantic: the USA. The fall in the price of WTI crude is then primarily the result of the shale revolution in the US. A recent Wood Mackenzie report indicated that in the past seven years the US added 3 million barrels per day of tight/shale oil and 27.5 billion cubic feet per day of shale gas to the world energy mix. This amounts to a 42% increase in US oil and gas production whilst US internal demand is decreasing on a yearly basis. One potent example is the US state of North Dakota where production of tight oil from its shale plays attained the record in April and May 2014 of 1 million barrels per day of production. The Wood Mackenzie report posits that with increasing production and decreasing internal demand the US is poised to become a nett energy exporter in 2025 hence energy independent. The major obstacle to attaining energy independence is the political order as there is presently a ban on export of US crude and approvals for the creation of LNG plants is not moving fast enough for those set on flooding the world with US produced shale gas LNG. The control of both Houses of Congress by the republican party arising from the elections held on November 4, 2014 is seen as a victory for the energy lobby in the US and action on these signal issues is now expected. The reality is that as the US decreases its imports of crude from world suppliers these suppliers are now forced to seek out buyers for volumes previously absorbed by the US in other markets. They are all now courting Asian buyers with a range of incentives but Asia simply does now have at present the level of economic activity to absorb the slack created by the new US supply dynamic. China chose to spend its way out of the 2008 implosion of neo-liberal capitalism and now the corbeaux are coming home to roost. The eurozone is yet to recover from the 2008 debacle and as the German economy slows the alarm bells go off. Whilst this reality plays out US demand for energy is robust but growing energy self reliance means non-US energy sources are locked out from enjoying US demand. Structural changes in the dynamic of supply demands that the other suppliers cut supply to fit actual levels of demand but this is not happening as a result the price of Brent crude must follow downward. There is a knock on effect of the drop in crude prices and the price of LNG linked to crude prices which will impact earnings on LNG. This is not a passing market correction phase as a new energy market of the North Atlantic is coming into existence with an entirely new dynamic which destroys the energy paradigm of T&T put in place by the politicians of T&T in the past. The present batch of politicians are then called upon to create and execute a brand new energy paradigm that ensures the sustainability of the social order of T&T. Haiti beckons!!!

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?hpf=1&a_id=135593