LNG and OIL 2015: The REALITY

The 2015 budget has been revised but it is clearly apparent that spending envisaged as key to winning the next general elections will continue by any means necessary. The question then is : if victory then what? Readers should be exposed to what those in the energy industry of the north are saying and as such click on the links in the order presented and experience the discourse of the North and understand that a new energy paradigm is being created with its new brand of geopolitics. In this new reality T&T is simply naked in the cold wind as nothing has been done since 2010 to address this reality and prepare T&T for survival in this new reality. It is the UNC that bought T&T into the old, failed paradigm in 1995 and in 2015 has done nothing to extricate T&T from the dead paradigm. The first reality is the strategy of the Saudis and the Arab Emirates. They are not cutting production regardless of the oil glut. They are insisting that low oil prices will in fact breathe life into stagnant economies and subsequently raise demand. In the interim they will protect their market share by any means necessary. The question is: what if there is no economic upswing to raise demand?




The hot market for LNG last year was Asia but in the second half of 2014 signs of slowdown  in demand became apparent even as supply was rising. The dramatic fall in oil prices has brought down LNG prices in Asia whilst the EU is in the skids except Germany for now. The reality today is rising supply of LNG and prices now below 10USD per MMbtu in Asia whilst capacity continues to expand especially in Australia. The core question for T&T is then: what is our take from LNG production in T&T? Are we as a people collecting a just and equitable take from the exploitation of our wasting asset?


The 800 pound gorilla in the energy room today is the US as the US has impacted both the oil and gas markets of the world with its shale gas/tight oil/shale oil revolution. The geopolitics of this revolution demands that the US energy revolution survive the present glut as it rolls out the new order. The US revolution impacts us with competitive access to US energy markets and when the US  becomes an oil/LNG exporter there will be the impact on the markets we export to. This is an intractable series of problems we now face as a nation as the energy paradigm implemented in the 1990s is now in tatters. This was a paradigm bought into by the T&T politicians peddled by the north now the north is the agent of our demise. Such is life when you fail to de-colonise your mind.


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