Monthly Archives: January 2015

LNG and OIL 2015: The REALITY

The 2015 budget has been revised but it is clearly apparent that spending envisaged as key to winning the next general elections will continue by any means necessary. The question then is : if victory then what? Readers should be exposed to what those in the energy industry of the north are saying and as such click on the links in the order presented and experience the discourse of the North and understand that a new energy paradigm is being created with its new brand of geopolitics. In this new reality T&T is simply naked in the cold wind as nothing has been done since 2010 to address this reality and prepare T&T for survival in this new reality. It is the UNC that bought T&T into the old, failed paradigm in 1995 and in 2015 has done nothing to extricate T&T from the dead paradigm. The first reality is the strategy of the Saudis and the Arab Emirates. They are not cutting production regardless of the oil glut. They are insisting that low oil prices will in fact breathe life into stagnant economies and subsequently raise demand. In the interim they will protect their market share by any means necessary. The question is: what if there is no economic upswing to raise demand?

The hot market for LNG last year was Asia but in the second half of 2014 signs of slowdown  in demand became apparent even as supply was rising. The dramatic fall in oil prices has brought down LNG prices in Asia whilst the EU is in the skids except Germany for now. The reality today is rising supply of LNG and prices now below 10USD per MMbtu in Asia whilst capacity continues to expand especially in Australia. The core question for T&T is then: what is our take from LNG production in T&T? Are we as a people collecting a just and equitable take from the exploitation of our wasting asset?

The 800 pound gorilla in the energy room today is the US as the US has impacted both the oil and gas markets of the world with its shale gas/tight oil/shale oil revolution. The geopolitics of this revolution demands that the US energy revolution survive the present glut as it rolls out the new order. The US revolution impacts us with competitive access to US energy markets and when the US  becomes an oil/LNG exporter there will be the impact on the markets we export to. This is an intractable series of problems we now face as a nation as the energy paradigm implemented in the 1990s is now in tatters. This was a paradigm bought into by the T&T politicians peddled by the north now the north is the agent of our demise. Such is life when you fail to de-colonise your mind.


Throughout the Caribbean the issue is not that we have a crime problem but the reality that we have an intractable problem with POLICING the social order. The core issue is then ensuring policing is now responding to reality on the ground not reality as framed by the politicians and the managerial elite of Caribbean policing including T&T. To grapple with  the present reality in Trinidad and Tobago it is necessary to follow what is going on in other Caribbean states. It is instructive that January 2015 in Jamaica has commenced with an alarming increase in the murder rate compared to January 2014 with the areas of Spanish Town/St. Catherine and Montego Bay/St. James being the hottest areas of activity which are in the past the areas of acute gang engagement and intense illicit drug trafficking activity. Given  the fact that Jamaica is now part of the pipeline that links Honduras, Guatemala and other Central American states to the north Caribbean pipeline there is now a monetary reason to go to war until the Order of the pipeline is hegemonic on the ground. In 2014 the Jamaican Constabulary reported a dramatic decline in gang related murders and a rise in non-gang murders pointing to a north Caribbean pipeline induced feeding frenzy. What is the reality in Jamaica is the continued failure to dismantle organised crime groups linked to the pipeline. This failure of policing leaves Jamaica at the mercy of the evolution of the pipeline and the violence derived from this evolution. The problem is then POLICING. The Dominican Republic the hub of the north Caribbean pipeline is presently playing the politics of dealing with a major instance of corruption within its anti drug agency. Which is yet another potent indicator of the endemic corruption that drives the state institutions of the DR and the impunity drug traffickers enjoy in the DR. The issue again is then POLICING. Nothing is uniquely different in T&T. The core issue here is the failure of policing to respond to the 21st century reality of crime in T&T. For this failure the managerial elite of the T&T Police Service has to accept full blame. If the politicians of T&T stymie all requests to carry the service into the 21st century then the managerial elite must inform the nation of this reality. This is not being political this is being responsible to the nation you have pledged to defend. The colonial order supposedly died in August 1962 but it never did and it is the duty of those charged with national security to put politicians in their place. Managerial incompetence and corruption destroys the ability of any state institution to respond to the threats posed by the Caribbean illicit drug trade in the 21st century. There is no breathing space to act now means we are already late. Click on the links and experience the discourse of weakness sends the right message to Pax Mexicana.