I have insisted that from the second half of the 1960s the process of creating the Caribbean narco trafficking states commenced. Caribbean narco democracies then maintain a facade of western liberal democracy founded on the rule of law whilst in fact drug traffickers have over time formed operational links to Caribbean states especially the political elites which made these traffickers strategically necessary/sacrosanct to the political elites in their daily functioning. I have paid the price for this position but in 2015 the evidence is now appearing in the public domain in the Caribbean. In the latest salvo from convicted drug trafficker Paulino Quirino delivered via skype Quirino is now insisting that the power he wielded in DR’s social order enabled him to protect Fernandez’s and Bautista’s deposits and recover said deposits in the failed BANINTER even though the bank was under state control as a result of its collapse. Quirino insists on the power he wielded over the head of BANINTER which raises the question of BANINTER laundering for Quirino? Bautista presently a senator is a player in the re-construction of post 2010 earthquake hit Haiti is presently on a number of corruption charges. Presently in Curacao a member of the Parliament of Holland has put in the public domain the allegation supposedly based on official documents that a member of the Curacao intelligence agency sold access to files to specific politicians who were connected to a member of the Italian mafia. These politicians then formed the government and proceeded to open said files to transnational criminal elements. The intelligence agency was in fact destroyed in order to facilitate transnational organised crime. The harm done to the security of Curacao when transnational organised crime penetrated the intelligence service is irreversible. What we have today then is a criminal state that is a pipeline to the EU. If you follow the press reports of the Tivoli Commission in Jamaica it is painfully clear the price Jamaica pays for garrison politics but today it has evolved to the stage where in Tivoli a militia armed and outfitted to match the JDF manned the Tivoli perimeter to prevent the incursion of the state into Tivoli. A militia outfitted to match the JDF can only exist because of the drug trade and the complicity of the political elites with the trade. When Charles “Lil Nut/Modeler” Miller and his right hand men insisted that it is their organisation that placed a political party in power in St Kitts and Nevis many said it was just the lies of a crass drug trafficker but now the real will become manifest. Pax Mexicana!
Cheniere Energy the creator of the Sabine Pass LNG manufacturing complex in the US is in the Dominican Republic to finalise plans to place 1 million tonnes of shale gas LNG in the DR per annum commencing the 4th quarter 2015 from its Trains 1 and 2. BG Group and Gas Natural Fenosa amongst other contracted buyers have taken up 16 million tonnes of the 18 million tonnes of the projected annual production of Trains 1 to 4 at Sabine Pass. Apparently Cheniere is placing LNG production that it did not contract out to buyers and the DR is marked as a market for US produced Sabine Pass LNG. A February 20, 2015 report in the Dominican Today stated that 1 million tonnes per annum of US LNG will sell for RD$ 8.00 per MMbtu plus terminal fee. As at February 20, 2015 the exchange rate was 1 USD equals RD$ 44.55 do the math to get the US price per MMbtu. Given the accuracy of the online news report it is now apparent that LNG will become a geo-political instrument in the Caribbean in 2015 and given the model adopted in T&T governing the monetisation of our gas reserves we are by-standers to the affair whilst our national interests are potently assailed. This scenario in the DR is not the entire reality as Crowley is moving to supply US LNG into Puerto Rico for delivery to the end users via new technologies pioneered in the US. Cheniere and Crowley are then moving to dominate specific segments of the market. Cheniere has entered the DR LNG market where T&T LNG is already sold to an electricity generator and seized market share that should have gone to T&T producers whilst Crowley is moving to supply users previously of no interest to LNG producers. The new energy order is then apparent and in this order T&T is trapped in a time warp created by politicians and compliant technocrats. For the week ending February 20, 2015 the LNG price in Asia remained at USD 6.70 per MMbtu where thin trading was the norm influenced by the New Year Holiday. Remember I posted earlier the cost per MMbtu for transporting T&T LNG to Asia. It was reported that LNG from T&T has no choice now but to chase the European premium but so are the other producers as Qatar floods this market with product. The lesson in this for T&T is that the expected revenues from Train 4 will reflect this Asian reality as double digit prices per MMbtu for LNG in Asia is now a memory. This reality will become clear as the 1st quarter winds down and the revenue take is added up. But the contraction in the retail economy is clear since Christmas 2014. Political propaganda cannot trump deprivation.
By now I am weary posting on the energy reality at present impacting Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) especially since I am fully occupied with running from vagrancy giving the no-work for me campaign presently in motion. But as long as this crude knee jerk propaganda driven by the assumption that we are brain dead and will believe any fabricated “good news” to keep the party going: run ah food card emanates from those charged with defending this present government whilst we face the paradigm shift without clue nor plan of action I have to post. The big news the past week was the fourth quarter 2014 results of BG group. OGJ February 3 reported that for every USD 1 movement of the oil price results in a USD 60-70 million impact at the earnings level of BG and a USD 70-80 million impact at the post tax operating cash flow. The second largest energy operator in T&T is then deeply affected by the collapse of the oil price. All the old talk about T&T being a gas based economy is just then fact taken out of reality’s context. BG expects an effective tax rate of 40-50 % in 2015 given the commodity price reality that they trade in. Good news eh! for T&T whilst lower net production volumes for energy were projected for T&T in 2015. All the talk about Starfish again the issue is “lower net production volume” for 2015. It is time to level with all of us the people of T&T and show us how you intend to deal with this reality Prime Minister. For the 4th quarter 2014 BG applied a pretax asset impairment charge of USD 6.8 billion to its Australian assets with USD 4.1 billion charged to its LNG assets as a result of the fall in oil prices. This application of impairment charges is expected to be adopted by other owners of LNG assets in Australia in the future given market realities. The application of impairment charges on a pretax basis impacts tax liabilities but more importantly it impacts negatively the value of assets created with debt thereby leveraging the companies even more than they are. Post impairment the issue is then cash to fund exploration and production and that is what impacts T&T. On February 6 the Asian spot market price for LNG fell to USD 6.90 per MMbtu creating the European premium as European spot prices were higher that that of Asia. Traders are now calling for the reduction of LNG cargoes moving from West to East in order to reduce Asian supply in a bid to talk up Asian prices. The pressing question is the sustainability of the present European premium as this premium is driven by the question over the supply of Russian gas to Ukraine thence Europe and the European winter. Winter will soon end and Russian now needs to sell as much as possible of its commodities given its economic realities at present. The Merkel and Hollande push over Ukraine wants to settle the issue of Russian gas supply to the EU as it is the unspoken imperative. The reality is that the most vibrant LNG market, Asia, is in glut, the European market is the premium market but its demand level cannot absorb displaced supply and the Latin American market is quiet. The perfect storm is formed. But don’t worry T&T is a gas based economy duh!!! Finally in the last week the growing size of the US inventory of crude oil was reported whilst production is not appreciably slowing. The rise in the oil price in the oil pits is not reflecting US production/inventory realities because this is a new paradigm being rolled out this is not business as usual. Click the links
February 14, 2015 As of February 13 the price of LNG fell again in Asia. The question now arises how longer will it fall especially given the new supply coming on in 2015. The so-called European premium is now increasing supply to Europe but how long will the premium last? Whilst this week the US EIA report showed the US inventory of oil is the highest in the past 80 years. The issue now is removing some 2 million barrels per day of oil supply to the market in a bid to raise prices but who is going to that? Why must the US surrender its strategic advantage of being energy independent for the sake of oil prices? Much less why must the US remain addicted to an oil supply sourced from nations faced with the threat of instability? Such as that from the House of Saud. Whilst in T&T denial is the word. Technocrats and politicians who all believed in the long lasting demand boom for gas from the US blinded to the reality of shale energy have yet to face the nation and confess the mortal sins committed against the future of T&T. The latest propaganda is economic diversification as if this is done overnight painlessly. Click the links
The preferred weapons of the cartels are: AK 47 ( the goat’s horn/with extended clip) assault rifle, AR-15 assault rifle, 40 caliber and 9 mm handguns. “Los Zetas are like a metastasizing cancer. Migrants are recruited. Soldiers are recruited. Policemen, mayors, businessmen-they’re all liable to become part of the web”. “Their secret is simply fear. They shake the bones of policemen, and taxi drivers, lawyers and migrants. All you need to do to get someone to dance the dance of fear is to utter the famous, simple motto: we are Los Zetas”. “El Commandante Mateo had brought order to Tabasco. He and his henchmen explained the rules to the small local gangs like this: join or leave the state”. “THE BEAST” by Oscar Martinez pgs 114,115 and 118. The Beast was written on the journeys of Martinez through Mexico with migrants from Central America to the US/El Norte. Click the link:
US ICE reported the dismantling of a trafficking organisation that moved drugs from Venezuela to Puerto Rico. The description of the order of the trafficking organisation indicates an operation run by Mexican cartel affiliates. The drugs are sent on credit to be paid for upon sale and a fiscales/hostage has to be handed over by the recipient of the drug shipment to the Mexican cartel. Fail to pay the fiscales dies graphically then you. Anyone close to the recipient of the drugs on credit can be the designated fiscales especially your children and those in the US, UK, Canada etc are not out of the reach of the cartel. Wonder who was the fiscales for the Norfolk shipment? I deliberately chose to quote from “THE BEAST” given the fact that the pioneer Mexican cartel to open up T&T was Los Zetas. A threat spawned external of T&T must be studied in its genesis environment and this requires reading, books yes knowledge. To dismiss this knowledge is to refuse to deal with the threat settling for cheap propaganda which solves nothing.
From the daily/weekly reports of the energy news services it is now plainly obvious that our energy reality grows worse in the 1st quarter 2015 which which will impact our fortunes for the 2nd quarter 2015 negatively in an election year. This negative impact is precisely because we are a gas based economy as the denial talk about gas realities being different from oil thereby insulating T&T’s revenue and hard currency gleaned from the energy sector is political denial attempting to soothe the populace whilst effective counter-measures to this reality are not even in the public conversation between the government and the populace. The price per MMbtu of LNG sold in Asia fell before the USD 8 per MMbtu recently as the price actually obtained for cargoes sold is under increasing pressure. Spot sales are now being increasingly dominated by traders who don’t necessarily own LNG production assets which indicate that in order to move inventory producers are selling to the trading houses at a discount. Lesson for T&T is: on world energy markets in the 1st quarter 2015 supply is outstripping demand which is a bad portent for the 2nd quarter 2015 as the election day looms. Given the disparity between the price obtained from T&T from LNG produced from trains 1 to 3, and the disparity in prices between south west Europe and Asia Spain became the largest source of re-loaded LNG in the world and the people of T&T did not share in this windfall. Enagas S.A. which is partially owned by Repsol is the major player in this Spanish reality but in the 1st quarter of 2015 re-loads from Enagas to Asia have ceased as the price per MMbtu in Asia fell below USD 8 per MMbtu. The question now arises is what will Enagas do with this LNG that it has no Spanish and European demand for and the impact on prices as increased supply is placed on markets. LNG for south west Europe has fallen below USD 7 per MMBtu. Contrary to the ole talk the LNG prices are falling now not expected to do so in May 2015 and will impact the revenue collected in the 1st quarter 2015. Click the links and get the gory details if you dare:
The next reality that grave attention must be paid to is the future of BP. The announcement of a group wide wage freeze and the request for employees of BPTT to accept the VSEP package offered are simply public expressions of changes being rolled out in the exploration and production arm of BP which impacts T&T. The announcement that BP will hand over its operatorship of the Gila and Tiber oil discoveries and the Gibson exploration prospect to ChevronTexaco in the US Gulf of Mexico speaks volumes for a company with a major footprint in the US market. More to come. Click the link:
Don’t be fooled with the ole talk about declining rig count in the US blazing the way for a recovery in the price of oil and don’t be fooled by the rise on Friday last as speculators who were short oil bought on the expectation they will sell at a profit inn the future. There is a US delay in well completion or a well completion backlog of 3-7 months in US shale oil plays. This simply means that the drilling of the rig is finished but it has not been completed to enable production. It is only when this backlog is effectively addressed that US production will in fact drop. With the US now cast in the role as the new swing shift producer then we are looking at the 3rd quarter and given the size of US oil and gas inventories at present brace for a rough geo-political ride. The reality is that world realities are now impacting the strategy to win the election due in 2015. Karma! Click the link and learn reality is never one dimensional.