Lunatic denial is terminal

Those who don’t earn foreign exchange/hard currency in T&T insist they are entitled to spend it as if it is their personal property. In a social order where the significant earners of hard currency are energy companies and the government collects its share of this hard currency through taxes and rents on the energy companies the talking heads bump their gums to talk about diversification  without spelling out if these non-energy pursuits will at least earn the for-ex they consume. There is a vast difference between creating jobs utilising for-ex you don’t earn and cannot earn and creating jobs whilst being self-sufficient in for-ex needs and paying taxes and rents to the government in for-ex. The local manufacturers are a long way from this state of operation and they must learn from the Jamaican enterprises that are now globalised and self-sufficient in for-ex consumption such as Jamaica Broilers Group. The Caricom market must now be replaced by North Atlantic markets then you can speak of manufacturers before that then you must speak of pampered assemblers living off subsidised inputs and a captive market closed by tariff and non-tariff barriers. Learn from the strategic plan of GraceKennedy. But the abiding reality is that the for-ex collected by the state overwhelmingly comes from the LNG exporters and the world LNG markets are in glut which is expected to deepen in the next five years as new LNG plants come alive in the next five years. It is estimated that by 2021 25% of global LNG production will be homeless as it seeks buyers with the impact on LNG prices being obvious. The May 2016 Asia LNG spot price is USD 4.20 per mmbtu and for June 2016 USD 4.00 per mmbtu. Of the 17 LNG cargoes purchased by YPF of Argentina for mid-year delivery LNG traders dominated the suppliers to the detriment of energy companies because LNG producers are selling homeless production to traders for the cash flow rather than hold stock and seek out buyers. In six cargoes sold to CFE of Mexico traders won 3 of 6 supply contracts. The word among traders is that contracts for June and July shipment were all sold for below USD 4.00 per mmbtu. This reality means that the government of T&T cannot defend a TTD exchange rate below TT7.00 to USD 1.00 without running down the for-ex reserves to  dangerous levels and 9 billion USD is no nest egg given the rate entitled citizens love to blow it at. Learn from the experience of other energy economies that the measures announced simply do not protect the reserves in a LNG market reality we are faced with in the next five years and failure to protect is not an option as Haiti beckons.

http://www.brecorder.com/top-news/world/289621-global-lng-prices-retreat-on-soft-demand.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-24/global-war-for-gas-market-share-claims-40-billion-lng-casualty

http://ir.kindermorgan.com/press-release/all/kinder-morgan-purchase-100-shells-equity-interest-elba-lng-liquefaction-joint-vent

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