Longevity of LNG glut is the problem

The problem we face in T&T is not caused by the collapse in oil prices as our daily oil production is below 80,000 bpd. The problem is the glut of LNG seeking buyers by any means necessary and any rise in oil prices say to USD45 at best for WTI with the consequent rise in contract LNG prices triggers a rebellion of buyers on contract. Contract due for renewal in 2017 and 2019 are under pressure already by a buyers’ rebellion for those contract prices to reflect market reality. Qatar has already signalled to buyers its willingness to cut prices to retain market share increasing the pressure on LNG producers and Russia and Norway are flooding Europe with pipeline gas to maintain their market shares of the market. Some have insisted that in the next two to three years the market will sink into a bloodbath very similar to the oil market. Others have stated that the LNG market will attain balance possibly by 2025 until then glut is the reality. Why then must BP tap increasingly smaller pools of gas to supply LNG trains to market a product in a glutted market until possibly 2025? The issue is no longer incentives from the government to tap pools of gas but to change the business model that will allow the gas producer to maximise returns on investment on both the local and international gas markets. Then the gas producer must sell gas directly to the end users who use gas as an input in an export driven enterprise in T&T. The cost of gas to the LNG trains must be competitive in light of international market realities hence little or no rents charged. That is the advice you will get when you take your business to the purveyors of the Washington consensus. In this new revenue horizon you must then radically cut your state expenditure and deepen the neo-liberal order the politicians in T&T love. If you want to borrow because you are addicted to grand state projects that change little but the balances on offshore accounts you must have the assent of the Consensus and to get this assent you have to deepen your dance with neo-liberalism where less than 1% become even richer and the rest of us learn how poverty is the hottest part of hell. The present right wing neo-liberalism worshipping government of Norway dipped into the sovereign wealth fund and the dippings continue to escalate because neo-liberalism solves only the problems of the super rich whilst we the poor have no problems to be solved because the exploitation our problems make the super rich what they are. To address our poverty is then to render neo-liberalism irrelevant. Out politicians will never accept this and the death of the politics of race.




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