Is the Dragon dancing for T&T or another case of being played by Venezuela?
On December 5, 2016 the gas supply deal from Venezuela to Trinidad was signed in Caracas and they danced with the instance of African Venezuelan culture presented at the signing which led me to ask if they dance and what they dance when the Chinese and Russians are in town signing huge deals? From the outset what is potently apparent is that T&T has hitched its wagon to the Maduro dynasty because of the collapse of the strategy embarked on by all ruling politicians in T&T since the arrival of Amoco. They have all failed T&T singularly and we will now pay the price as the Dragon is dancing upon us.
The Mariscal Sucre project is the brain child of deceased Hugo Chavez where four offshore gas fields: Dragon, Patao, Mejillones and Rio Caribe located to the north of the Paria Peninsula will be developed and the gas piped into an industrial complex at Guiria, Sucre state including a LNG train. To-date only the Dragon field is producing gas, it is 100% operated by PDVSA and the gas is feed into the national gas network. In February 2016 PDVSA and Rosneft of Russia announced that they had signed off on an agreement to develop Patao and Mejillones and possibly Rio Caribe but what is to be done with the gas produced was not placed in the public domain and no work on these fields have started to date by the said joint venture. The question remains: why will a foreign investor invest valuable USD in gas production in Venezuela to sell what it produces in Venezuela when Venezuela is BROKE and PDVSA does not have the money to fund the project on its own? Why invest in a LNG train in Venezuela with the US ramping up shale gas production which is bloating their natural gas stocks in storage and there is a world LNG surplus? Then there is the potent example of Repsol and Eni and the Perla field where with the discovery of conservatively 17 trillion cubic feet of gas you are told you must first supply the Venezuelan gas market at a stated volume per day and in 2016 you have almost covered your daily obligation but what happens next? The gas supply market has so changed in Venezuela in 2016 Venezuela is exporting gas to Colombia a drastic change from begging for gas from Colombia when you are obligated under an agreement to supply gas to Colombia. The closed Colombia-Venezuela border was suddenly opened the truck loads of food started coming into Venezuela and the Venezuelans cross over into Colombia looking for food to purchase with Bolivars that are accepted in Colombia now there is talk of formal exchange convertibility. By comparison what is happening with Maduro’s USD 50 million revolving fund for purchases in T&T? It went Colombia! So the food flowed then the Venezuela gas flowed to Colombia along with all the illicit tankers of gasoline, LPG etc. back to business gangstas rule!
An article in Oil & Gas Journal states that T&T wants 500 million scf/d of gas from Mariscal Sucre but since is only Dragon presently in production only 100 million scf/d will be sold to T&T and the rest when the other fields come on stream. T&T has then to wait on Rosneft time to now kiss up to Putin join the line behind Trump! We are now looking for 500 million scf/d with daily demand in T&T in excess of 3,000 m scf/d. No matter the Maduro gambit the present government has to dance with BP and grapple with the demands BP is making since the last government. Kamla’s strategy of denial and do nothing aren’t working whilst we are now Maduro’s bitch but I wonder what he wants from T&T? And a future Putin bitch then a XI bitch as we might have to go to Beijing to beg for their help with Maduro and whoever follows and with Putin. This is where the politics of race put us!