2018: The Beginning of the End of the Drug Trafficking 1% of the Caribbean

2017 The Trafficking Pipelines of the MTTOs in the Caribbean are Fully Functional

2018 the Year of Phase Two

The 2017 drug report of the OFDT of France confirms the effectiveness of the illicit trafficking pipelines of the Caribbean under the control of the Mexican Transnational Trafficking Organisations (MTTOs) and their affiliates from Caribbean gangland. The OFDT 2017 report does this by concentrating in the report on the evolution of the French overseas departments in the Caribbean namely Martinique, Guadeloupe and French Guiana into in 2017 the third of the three dominant routes for cocaine entering mainland France and by extension Europe. The Eastern Caribbean Trafficking Pipeline (ECTP) created by the MTTOs for specific strategic reasons have in 2017 being all attained. Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands remain trafficking points to the US, the Dominican Republic (DR) continues to be the premier trafficking point to the US and trafficking points to France and Europe are booming in the French overseas departments. Added to this are the English speaking Caribbean islands, the British Overseas Territories and those islands in the Caribbean linked in some form to The Netherlands. Then there are the members of CARICOM on the South American mainland linked to the Caribbean drug trade by being supply points to trafficking pipelines namely Suriname and Guyana and finally there is the command and control centre of the Caribbean pipelines: Venezuela. Phase 1 of the strategic plan is then complete, functional and generating profit with its attendant order and its continuing impact on the social order of Caribbean states. What is noteworthy with the pipeline from the French Caribbean overseas departments is the two-way flow of the pipeline with cocaine moving from the Caribbean departments to France and hashish most noteworthy Moroccan hashish moving from France to the Caribbean departments. Hashish from this pipeline is entering the ganja trade of the Caribbean and is feeding ganja wars in these markets separate apart from the common war over supply of herbal ganja. There are then multiple ganja wars as supply is also coming in from Canada and the US. This two-way pipeline especially in Martinique has in 2016 to 2017 impacted the war for dominance in St Lucia seen in the rising murder rate. St Vincent was impacted in 2016 and it continued into 2017 seen in its rising murder rate by the dual flow of the pipeline linking the French Caribbean departments to France. The dual flow of the French Caribbean overseas departments/France pipeline is an indicator of the possibility of pipelines in the Caribbean becoming dual flow pipelines from 2018. Pipelines to Europe and West Africa can become dual flow pipelines if not so already.

The northern quadrant of the Caribbean island chain is now exhibiting the impact of the increased flow of illicit product through these islands to primarily the US and Europe with Canada in a trailing third place. The Bahamas is in play as the jump off point to Florida as south Florida especially is once again a point of entry to the US with product entering The Bahamas from various jump off points. In The Bahamas cocaine and ganja are the prime commodities and a move to local production of ganja is apparent. The increased flow of product into Jamaica for export via the pipelines has impacted Jamaican gangland is combined with the dominance of Jamaica as the premier exporter of ganja in the Caribbean island chain. Jamaican transnational organised crime dominates the export of ganja and is involved in the export of cocaine as they are affiliates of the MTTOs. Through their affiliation with the MTTOs Jamaican transnational organised crime now has an evolved Caribbean operational presence. At the apex of the hierarchy Shower continues to exert hegemony over Jamaican gangland. These developments have fundamentally changed the terrain of gun violence in Jamaica as Montego Bay, the command and control centre of Jamaican trafficking, is now the unrivalled gun murder capital of Jamaica. Those excluded from the bounty of trafficking under the hegemony of the MTTOs and their Jamaican affiliates now wreak bloody revenge on the poor and underclass of St James parish, Cornwall county, Jamaica. The Dominican Republic continues to be the premier trafficking point of the Caribbean island chain. A Dominican ethnic nexus has now evolved between the drug trade, the DR, DR ethnic gangs in the US, Europe and the Caribbean comprising Dominican citizens and/or members of the Dominican Diaspora. On the eastern seaboard of the US Dominicans and Dominican gangs are now players in the drug trade of this region of the US and are now setting up operations in the rest of the USA. This reality is now expressed in the DR with the operational presence of these groups in the DR, the Caribbean and Latin America. The DR operational presence in Spain is also noted. What has moved the Dominicans into positions of power in the trade is their affiliation to the MTTOs.

The MTTOs will not continue to depend on the DR as the premier trafficking point of the Caribbean island chain. The strategy implemented is to create alternate trafficking points to form a series of trafficking points enabling a fail-safe system that drives a tsunami of product to markets of the North Atlantic. In this strategy Puerto Rico, Haiti, the Bahamas and Jamaica are the chosen alternates. Puerto Rico is a work in progress and the financial difficulties of the state, the damage wrought by hurricane Maria with the resulting socio-economic dislocation and the exodus from Puerto Rico are windfalls for the strategic agenda of the MTTOs for Puerto Rico. The affiliate status of specific organisations of Puerto Rican gangland with the MTTOs in Puerto Rico and the US mainland has resulted in the rise to prominence of these organisations and members of the Puerto Rican Diaspora in the trade in the US. The days where Puerto Ricans were subservient to the Dominicans in the illicit trades is now being challenged as they create spaces under their dominance. Haiti and Haitian organised crime affiliated to the MTTOs both in Haiti and the US are charged with the task of evolving Haiti into a premier trafficking point. In this task they are also involved in trafficking to and from The Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands and in the voluminous cross-border trafficking with the DR. In the network of trafficking pipelines established and functioning by the MTTOs Jamaica is linked to Central America especially Honduras, to Haiti, The Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These pipelines complement the pipelines that link Jamaica to all points in the Caribbean island chain, Guyana, Suriname, Venezuela and Central America. These are all multi-product pipelines with dual flow capacity. It’s then obvious that the task at hand is diversification of the trafficking mechanism in the Caribbean which is well in train and functional. In 2017 the Caribbean basin is then integrated into a network of trafficking routes and pipelines under the hegemony of the MTTOs, their partners as Italian organised crime and their Caribbean gangland affiliates. What is now apparent is the movement of European gangland affiliates of the MTTOs and their partners into the Caribbean for the purpose of trafficking drugs to Europe and to replicate illicit enterprises in the Caribbean they were adept at in Europe such as: payment card scamming, gambling, prostitution and fake goods. The dynamic of Pax Mexicana is then unfolding in its diversity.

2018 The Imperative of Phase Two

In 2018 and thereafter as the strategy of the MTTOs for the Caribbean takes hold and moves to exert hegemony over drug trafficking in the Caribbean the nature of drug trafficking will be further fundamentally changed at its core and this will impact further social orders of the Caribbean. The nature of the drug supply will forever change as the products of the MTTOs will flow only within the membership of the association of the MTTOs: the MTTOs, their partners, affiliates and the affiliates of their partners and affiliates. Wholesale markets will be squeezed of supply and the dislocation will heighten the gun violence. In fact, wholesale markets will collapse which enables the strategic move of The Association/Asociacion to dominate all Caribbean retail markets for products traded by The Association: cocaine, ganja, meth and other synthetic drugs.

The issue of the security and integrity of the networks of The Association/Asociacion is in 2018 a pressing issue demanding action. One specific threat posed to the networks of The Association/Asociacion in the Caribbean arises from the old order of the Valle Norte organisation of Colombia in the Caribbean which The Association/Asociacion is intent on eliminating from the Caribbean. This Valle Norte order created indigenous Caribbean traffickers resident in the Caribbean who are the dominant group of the Caribbean oligarchy ensconced within the Caribbean private sector. These oligarchs dominate the social order of the Caribbean territory there they are resident and are especially linked to the politicians of the Caribbean and agents of the state. The Association/Asociacion and these traffickers are then on a collision course as the operational presence of The Association/Asociacion intensifies in the Caribbean towards exerting hegemony over the illicit trades as the supply of product to these oligarchs dry up save and except they become affiliates. The threat arises with the response of these oligarchs to this supply reality of the MTTOs. Will they utilise their political influence and social dominance to have Caribbean states engage with the MTTOs in a bid to ensure their survival in the illicit drug business? The question then in 2018 is what will be the strategic response of The Association/Asociacion to this threat? The oligarchs are especially vulnerable as they have no links to supply, have no trafficking resources The Association/Asociacion needs and worse yet they have no presence in the consumer markets of the US and Europe that merit associational status. These oligarchs are simply aberrations created by a Colombian strategy that has failed and is now being wiped off the drug map of the world by The Association/Asociacion as they recreate the order in their image and likeness.

Can these oligarchs with their power in a comparatively small state space simply surrender to The Association/Asociacion and bow out or settle for what they are afforded? Can they resist the urge to protect their turf by using their political power? In so doing they will present a potent threat to The Association/Asociacion which must be answered. The answer will be in keeping with how similar situations were handled in other areas one example being Central America. Whatever the response the social orders of the Caribbean will be deeply impacted with one result of the displacement of the drug trafficking oligarchs being political instability as revelations of illicit activities and linkages to politicians and agents of the state enter the public domain along with requests for extradition. Then there are the instances of assassinations/hits that send the message certainly not of plata o plomo as there is no silver/plata to be had. It’s already apparent in the run up to 2018 that the oligarchs are under pressure and some have already capitulated to The Association/Asociacion. Only the passage of time will reveal it all especially how the drug trafficking oligarchs react to the new order that has little space for them in their present configuration. Whatever the outcome the social order of Caribbean states will be impacted at its core power relations will its attendant blowback. Pax Mexicana!

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