April 30, 2019, Venezuela and the geo-political gambit

Venezuela: May 30, 2019 what was that! An attempted coup d’etat, a cessation of usurpation or where Guaido and Maduro merged

Whatever that action was on May 30, 2019 in Venezuela all it proved is that there is no difference between Maduro and Guaido as they both live on the glory of others. Maduro on that of Chavez and Guaido on the implied power of the US on their own, singly, personally they are farts in a gale of wind. Maduro now finds that he must now make room in his pantheon of those whose legacy he feeds off for Putin and Xi Jinping in order to survive politically in Venezuela. Whilst Guaido must forever be the lapdog of the Washington oligarchy of the US. Both Maduro and Guaido have then single handedly destroyed the independence of Venezuela where a simple internal political struggle has now ballooned into a turf war between Trump vs China and Russia who have clearly drawn a line in the sand using the actions of Trump against Iran and Venezuela. Maduro and Guaido are doing every thing and anything in their power to bring this internal conflict to a conflict on the world stage for they are nothing without the intervention of transnational conflict. Maduro and Guaido need each other: they both want no new elections which will open up the field to candidates previously barred from entering for both of them will lose, they both desire to rule Venezuela for ad infinitum using poverty as the weapon of social control, They both share the same neo-liberal financial market austere crony, brigand capitalist worldview and they are both Afro-mestizo with a deep grave, inferiority complex in favour of the blancos of the North Atlantic.

In the presidential elections of 2013 when it was potently illustrated that Maduro was not the heir of the Chavez revolution, he set about the task of purging the Chavistas paying no mind to the grave weaknesses of the economy in light of US regime change agendas made manifest long before Trump. Maduro’s agenda was to apply a dose of neo-liberal austerity whilst intensifying all the endemic weak points of the national infrastructure and economy. Rather than sell CITGO and exit the US he held on to it, rather than defaulting on the debt he squeezed Venezuelans with the Maduro diet to service the debt rather than fixing the national electricity grid he and his gang looted the nation. The result was hyperinflation that is now here to stay and has impoverished Venezuelans. Maduro’s strategy enabled the Trump assault on Venezuela rather that adopting counter measures in advance.

Guaido and his blanco overlord Lopez did everything in their power to make Venezuela ungovernable and in doing so made Maduro relevant for they never had intentions to participate in the process as they are convinced they cannot defeat Chavez’s ghost. Maduro is then their greatest asset and the unearned gift Chavez handed them. Now the question arises of what is Guaido doing with the access to sanctioned funds of Venezuela Trump has given access to? For the masses are certainly not reaping the benefits of these funds whilst the bondholders of Venezuela are. Since April 30, the masses have voted with their feet on Guaido seen in the collapse of the crowds he now draws in his public campaign to end the usurpation. Whilst all of these games are ongoing in Venezuela the future will be decided by the power relations between now two opposed groups of world power: China and Russia staring down Trump. This is what is important for there is stalemate in Venezuela which will be broken by the actions of these two groups and the terrain of this action must be understood for Maduro, Guaido, the Fanb and the masses are reacting to these power relations for both Maduro and Guaido are politically irrelevant without this power relation. In 2019 Maduro was slated for removal by the Chavista movement many insist that his replacement was slated to be Diosdado. Trump saved Maduro to have him face off with Guaido rather than a new Chavista face. The question now arises of the continued survival of Maduro given his dismal leadership record, at this time time when the global battle for Venezuela has now arrived at the cusp of invasion and war. Does China and Russia want and need Maduro in Miraflores at this critical juncture in the world power engagement?

For this analysis three articles on the role of Russia in Venezuela by the Jamestown Foundation of the US will be deconstructed to reveal a discourse of the world power game in Venezuela and how it impacts power relations between China, Russia and the US with Venezuela as a proxy for direct engagement between these powers.

Article 1:Behind the scenes of Russia’s military detachment to Venezuela (April 2, 2019
https://jamestown.org/program/behind-the-scenes-of-russias-military-detachment-to-venezuela/

On March 23, 2019 it was reported that 99 Russian military specialists arrived in Venezuela and are still there. On March 28, 2019 it was reported that 28 of the 99 Russian military specialists who are cyber experts were posted at Cuidad Guayana at the heart of the Venezuelan hydro-electric generation system supposedly to hardened the electrical system from further cyber attacks. Which points to a double pronged mission aim for the 99 Russian military specialists and their commander on the ground in Venezuela. These are: 1. to harden key strategic national infrastructure against cyber attacks and 2, to quickly establish a national command and control system with its infrastructure over the mainly Russian built and supplied anti-aircraft and anti-missile assets of Venezuela. Key to this task is the commissioning and deployment of the S 300 anti-aircraft and anti- missile batteries which are still in their shipping containers. On March 28, 2019 Cuban media reported that it was Diosdado Cabello who negotiated the stationing of the Russian military contingent in Venezuela, its mission scope and terms of engagement. On March 30, Cuban media reported that Venezuela received 65 tons of aid from China which signals China’s commitment to engaging the US and its stated aim of regime change. Issues then arise if Diosdado will soon replace Maduro as the leader of the government and what is the allocation of roles between China and Russia in this joint effort to stymie Trump’s strategy for regime change. What is obvious is that Russia and China have drawn the line in the sand for Trump over Venezuela and this throwing down of the gauntlet has much more to do than the billions of USD both countries have pumped into Venezuela. Trump’s white supremacist foreign policy in action has earned and generated this push back. Venezuela is now a proxy war between world powers.

Article 2: Russia steps deeper into the Venezuelan battleground (May 2, 2019)

https://jamestown.org/program/russia-steps-deeper-into-the-venezuelan-battleground/

This article alleges that a deal was made between Moscow, Beijing and Washington with the high command of the FANB to remove Maduro install Guaido who will then call elections. On April 30, 2019 the FANB refused to comply with the deal allegedly as a result of actions taken by Guaido on the morning of April 30, 2019 and squashed the deal. The article details the Venezuelan military’s potential to do grave harm to any invasion force with a commissioned and operational anti-aircraft and and anti-missile system consisting of Russian hardware under Russian oversight in Venezuela. For the collapse oi the deal to remove Maduro with a palace coup means that war is now the only means to regime change. The article lists the hardware Venezuela possesses on the ground as: S-300VM (Antey-2500) long range interceptors, Buk-M2 and S-125 Pechora short range anti-aircraft missiles. If Russia has now decided that it will now play a game of chicken with Trump as it is willing to engage militarily with the US and its proxies bordering Venezuela then this is a whole new ball game. A ball game that dwarfs the game Russia plays in Syria the effects of which will wash over all of us in the Caribbean. The white supremacist bully boy on the block just got a throw down in his backyard. How many wars can you fight simultaneously Venezuela, Iran, North Korea plus a trade war that is growing cold with China and a cold war with Russia?

Article 3: Putin and Lavrov rebuff Pompeo’s overtures in Sochi

https://jamestown.org/program/putin-and-lavrov-rebuff-pompeos-overtures-in-sochi/

This article deals with the strategic need for a deal with Moscow if Trump is to attain his foreign policy agenda involving Iran and Venezuela. Trump simply cannot fight two wars simultaneously limiting the political fall out on his re-election bid without Russia giving up one of the two or both. It is as simple as that! Hence Trump’s phone call to Putin and Pompeo’s visit to Russia to speak to Putin. But Putin is calling the shots as Trump needs Russian acquiescence not Putin therefore Putin chose to play coy in Sochi. The central issue Trump must now face is credibility and trust or what have you ever done for me? You simply cannot trust a deal breaker and now the chickens are coming home to roost. The article insists that Russia has three strategic aims: to resist all efforts for regime change in Venezuela, to resist all attempts to strangle Iran by sanctions or military means and to stymie all US efforts to divide China and Russia. Trump has handed Putin the means to effect his strategy to limit US geo-political power whilst boosting Russia’s military power towards bargaining with the US from a position of strength. What happens in Venezuela will be decided in Washington, Moscow and Beijing not in Venezuela and in this brawl of the elephants, all of us, the grass of the Third World will be trampled. Now is the time that we put T&T’s interest and our national security first. Let the elephants who are fighting over the carcass of Venezuela deal with the blow-back from their actions. We in T&T had no hand in the debacle of Venezuela why must we now pay the price?

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