I write on the final day of 2014 and all the signs point to the advance of the Mexican order in the Caribbean in 2015 with specific aspects of the agenda of the Mexican cartels carded to be unleashed in the Caribbean island chain . The best model to study and understand our future through is Honduras today. Honduras is now an offshore manufacturing location for the production of powdered cocaine and methamphetamine. Coca paste produced in the coca lands is now moved to Honduras by Mexican dominated organisations. Jamaica is already linked to the Honduran pipeline which means Haiti, The Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the DR are also linked. This is in fact the most potent pipeline under construction by the Mexicans in the Caribbean. The strategic decision to establish a manufacturing presence in Honduras has resulted in two related realities: the dismantling of the social order via gun violence carried out by gangland affiliates of the Mexican cartels especially Mara Salvatrucha and Mara 18 and the dismantling of the Honduran trafficking order where Honduran trafficking families are now under assault by Mexican cartels for their turf. Since these traffickers wield social/political power in the Honduran social order the end result is endemic violence making it the murder capital of the world. These realities will sweep over the nations that comprise the Honduran pipeline in 2015 making for a rough ride. A continued reduction of the murder rate in Jamaica in 2015 will indicate the establishment of the Mexican order over Jamaican gangland and the focus of the Jamaican gangland affiliates of the Mexican cartels on making lots of money rather than on deprivation driven communal warfare. The same is noted in the case of the murder rate in Puerto Rico and in all cases politicians and police beat their chest on their job well done. Visualise what happens in the Caribbean pipeline when the Mexicans move to eliminate the indigenous Caribbean traffickers utilising among other tools their gangland affiliates? What happens in Trinidad and Tobago and the Eastern Caribbean depends upon the advance of the Mexican cartel agenda for Venezuela. What is obvious is the advancing agenda for Venezuela and this will impact Trinidad and Tobago in 2015. The attraction as always is to establish manufacturing operations in Venezuela hence the discovery of the semi-submersible under construction in Guyana in 2014. What is certain as 2014 ends is that a tsunami of illicit product via mules and swallowers left the Caribbean for the US, Canada and Europe and this is the strategy of the Mexican cartels on the ground in the Caribbean island chain. An increasingly growing portion of this tsunami is under the control of the Caribbean gangland affiliates of the Mexican cartels and these affiliates now run transnational trafficking enterprises moving Mexican product. Pax Mexicana. Today is my final day of employment at UWI, St Augustine. It was not a pleasure. My silence is not given but what then is the motive?
Juergen Todenhoeger of Germany negotiated his way into receiving from the Kaliph of IS permission for a six day visit to IS. Todenhoeger and his son visited Mosul and it is interesting to note that in the BBC report foreign fighters from the UK, US, Sweden and Trinidad and Tobago were listed as having contact with Todenhoeger. T&T is placed in a most vaunted list of countries of the North that are in fact targets for Islamic extremist attacks or planning to carry out attacks. This is but another instance where the propaganda machine of IS has ensured that fighters from T&T are highlighted and the strategic question is why? Why the emphasis on fighters drawn from the Southern Caribbean, the weak underbelly of the US ? Again the emphasis placed by the leadership of IS speaks to the existence of structure in T&T. Denial driving public relations flim flam is a certain recipe for disaster.
Al Maqdisi is the most prominent Salafi-Jiahdi sheik alive today and in keeping with his rejection of the actions of his student al Zarqawi he has now launched an attack on Islamic State. Al Maqdisi is spelling out the antagonistic difference in worldview between Salafi-Jihadis and IS and the battle that the Salafi-Jihadis are losing today. But in T&T and the Southern Caribbean this clash of worldviews is of no consequence because IS is the latest hot brand to wear. First Islam differentiated one black race from another, then the new brand became Salafi-Jihadism to further differentiate the two black races and the latest brand is now IS. Punitive control of the womb of women to prevent miscegenation drives the dance with IS.
The full page ads scream that serious crime in T&T in 2014 has been reduced to levels last seen in the first decade of the 21st century in T&T. This performance then demands re-election of the present government and praises for the broken windows man/minister of national in/security. But whilst serious crime reportedly collapse we are now in a murder wave apparently pushed by a bid to make up for time lost during the state of emergency. What must be understood is that serious crime has to be reported to the police and the police duly record said report and act upon it for the event to hopefully make it to the statistics. Other than that the police has to witness the event and act thereon for it to become a recorded event. Will you report an event to the police in an environment where since the decade of the 1990s witnesses have been silenced with impunity to this day? Will you expose yourself to a judicial system that is constipated at best exposing yourself in a court process that can last years and you are open to the predation of the bad boys? Will you report a serious crime to a police structure that is viewed at best with suspicion as you are exposed to stories passed down via trusted networks of bad experiences arising with contact with the police service? The reality that operates presently that must be accepted by those in the so-called licit structure is that because of the realities that exist a thriving, vibrant illicit justice structure now operates in T&T. Victims of crime with the contacts and resources to afford the services of this illicit justice system simply don´t bother to report a crime to the police they simply go to the illicit structure and solve their problem.’Those who resort to Alleyne simply don´t have the resources or don´t want to pay the price for service. And persons from the licit structure are players in the illicit game. Serious crime is also impacted by the measures applied by prospective victims to harden themselves as targets. Those of us in the Corridor have gone through predation since the decade of the 1970s and have responded by constantly altering our strategic lifestyle. If you are now telling us that the level of serious crime has collapsed we need to know where or the new geography of serious crime in T&T. But why is serious crime in retreat and murder especially murder by gun escalating? This is not unique to T&T in the Caribbean as island governments under political pressure over escalating violence are now chanting the same political mantra: serious crime down but murder up. It is only Jamaica that is reporting both serious crime and murders down and is supplying a geographical distribution picture. To attempt to explain the continuing rise in the murder level whilst accepting the position that serious crime has in fact collapsed is in fact a fallacious position to adopt. With an oversupply of illicit firearms and ammunition on the market and impunity afforded by a tottering criminal justice system why will I armed and dangerous not put down wuk on victims all in a row? Why wouldn´t I travel the twin island state seeking out victims? The broken windows man is insisting that Bratton and Guliani can in fact teach us how to handle our crime problem. But both of them have no experience in policing in the largest illicit drug transition zone in the world today. Check the record in Mexico. Under both of them New York city is the most profitable poly illicit drug market in the US today. Demand in NY is sucking in product from California to New Mexico because of the level of demand and the drug prices as a result. The Mexican cartels are in the Caribbean island chain to move product to that same NY market created by the splurge of resources post September 2001 to deal with the supposed terrorist threat leaving the drug traffickers high and dry to run riot in the most lucrative drug supermarket in the US today. Now they are hurling the remaining manpower not at organised crime in NY but black males selling cigarettes on the street on Staten Island and shooting an unarmed black male on a project stairwell whilst the bad boys rule the self same project and they don´t go up against them. The agenda of these persons and those like them have literally handed the NY drug markets to the Mexican cartels and their affiliates. The record of broken windows in the US is policing of minorities for minor offences whilst the organised crime players run riot. It is the policing of minorities whilst the areas they inhabit become gentrified forcing them out. East Dry River in the house? It does not deal with oragnised drug trafficking. How is it then going to do that in the home of drug trafficking: the Caribbean basin? The consultants hired B&G have then contributed to creating a problem in NY which is now impacting US negatively but we are paying them to come and tell US how to solve the problem they helped to create. Time for me to ride out. Pax Mexicana
Click the link
As I write WTI crude is now below 60 USD on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The projected 2 million barrels of surplus oil per day being placed on international markets for which there is no demand is now being augmented by the Saudi strategy to sell its oil discounted to Asian and US markets. What then is the Saudi strategy? The public explanation is to reduce US shale energy production forcing the US to become a swing shift producer nothing else. It is then an attempt to blunt the geo-political impact of US energy independence. But in this supposed assault the Saudis are willingly executing a strategy that has placed Venezuela and Iran in a position of opposition to the Saudi strategy. Is there then a sectarian weapon aimed at Iran in this Saudi strategy? To refuse to slash production and then to slash prices in a glutted market speaks to a move to change the power relations of OPEC and that of the Middle East. In this scenario as oil plumbs unknown depths and LNG prices in Asia and Europe follow oil prices down the revenue base of the T&T government is then up in the air in light of the spending patterns established since May 2010. In the present market realities ultra-deep water production of oil is under cost/price pressures much less for gas production from this source in light of US shale gas. The government of T&T will then be placed under grave pressure under present market realities to reduce the revenue collected from the ultra-deep margins in order to encourage production. The issue is not then increased exploration and production but production in the face of lower revenue accruing to the nation. The paradigm has then failed. The reality of how we as a nation derive revenue from Atlantic must never be forgotten.The Business Guardian of week 4, November 2014 page 10 revealed that there were two different operational/ownership structures of the 4 trains at Atlantic. All the production of trains 1-3 are sold on contract to the offtakers whilst Atlantic has no sight of where the production of train 4 is sold and at what prices as Atlantic is simply a gas processor paid by the owners of the input gas. A series of questions arise concerning the revenue take of T&T from this double reality which are not in the public domain. For example is the contract price paid by the offtakers of trains 1-3 based on US Henry Hub? What of transfer pricing between the offtakers, the local arms of the transnationals and the entities selling the LNG? Anyway it was reported by Atlantic that as at October 2014 trains 1-3 sold some 48% of its LNG in Latin America, 9% in the US and 8% in the Far East. Given the high price of LNG in Asia why only 9% of production sold in Asia? In keeping with the tradition of silence by governments of T&T on our energy resource we are yet to find out what is going on with train 4 at Atlantic. The core issue is then not production but are we maximising our take from a wasting asset that belongs to the people of T&T? Click the links and experience the Saudi strategy.
On CCN TV 6 a father with legal custody of his two children came forward insisting that his children were abducted by their mother and on their way to Syria for the purpose of Hijrah to Islamic State. The father outlined a plausible travel route to Europe from Suriname and once in Europe then the next move is to Turkey and across the porous Turkish/Syrian border into Islamic State. This follows the return to Trinidad of children transported to Syria by their biological father. As usual these realities are left to rumours and conjecture as there is no education of the public on the nature of the operations of Islamic State in T&T much less for the southern Caribbean. If the claims of the father prove correct we are now faced with a sophisticated network that is in fact a pipeline that has movement in both directions. Again the pressing question to the broken windows man is: “have you determined the identity of the Islamic State shaykh?” We are reacting to actions where is the dismantling?
Carlos Lobo of the powerful Lobo clan of Honduras was sentenced to 20 years in a US Federal Pen after pleading guilty as charged. Long accustomed to wielding power in the Honduran social order Lobo failed to prepare for the Mexican cartel strategy of eliminating by any means necessary the indigenous apex traffickers of the Caribbean basin states they operate in. From one time ally to expendable throw away who you gave up to the US Federal authorities. Learn from this example and those from Guatemala for the apex traffickers of the Caribbean island chain are next in line. And learn from the silence of Carlos Lobo as there is always family to consider. Watch the video on Manaus, Brazil as Pax Mexicana has turned the Amazon river into the cocaine river and the river of cocaine addiction in keeping with its strategy to flood retail and wholesale illicit drug markets in the areas where they transition products. This is maximising profits and creating the Mexican social order. Read the Daily Herald story of human trafficking from St Martin about trafficking on the cheap unlike that of Pax Mexicana. And finally read the story of cocaine interdicted at JFK international airport originating from Guyana noting the quantity of cocaine carried by the mule. This and other interdictions from Guyana at JFK indicate that Guyana is floating on a sea of cocaine given the quantities mules are caught attempting to move into the US. These are but further instances of the power of Pax Mexicana, the hegemony wielded over the illicit trades of the Caribbean basin. Link this to the fact that we are the murder capital of the world.
December 12, 2014 The press release of the US DEA on Lobo is now listed. Remember there is a Lobo organisation. Wonder who will now deal with this group.
I have reached the stage in my long journey of monitoring and writing on the evolution of the illicit trades of the Caribbean where realities I wrote and published on as long ago as 2004 have now become reality for mainstream North Atlantic media. But at this conjunction in my journey I am now old and facing vagrancy in the face as this is my final month of employment at the University of the West Indies at St Augustine, Trinidad as my publications are myths and fairy tales according to the experts at the university. There is a lesson somewhere in this reality I hope but I am impervious to it. The reality will continue to evolve and as long as I am alive I will comment. Those who live in denial will eventually be impacted by the reality that is the spawn of Pax Mexicana. Enjoy!
Click the link to read the 2014 version of a 2002 reality.